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Default probabilities of European sovereign debt: market-based estimates

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  • Laurence Copeland
  • Sally-Anne Jones

Abstract

For a number of EMU member Governments, prices of their (mainly) DM-denominated debt are compared with otherwise identical debt issued by the German Government, so as to extract implied risk-neutral default probabilities. In most cases, the probabilities are small, though in the case of Italy they average over 4% even under the most conservative assumptions.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurence Copeland & Sally-Anne Jones, 2001. "Default probabilities of European sovereign debt: market-based estimates," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(5), pages 321-324.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:8:y:2001:i:5:p:321-324 DOI: 10.1080/135048501750157521
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lichtenberg, Frank R. & Pottelsberghe de la Potterie, Bruno v., 1998. "International R&D spillovers: A comment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(8), pages 1483-1491, September.
    2. Djankov, Simeon & Hoekman, Bernard, 1998. "Avenues of Technology Transfer: Foreign Investment and Productivity Change in the Czech Republic," CEPR Discussion Papers 1883, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lizarazo, Sandra Valentina, 2013. "Default risk and risk averse international investors," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 317-330.
    2. Schuknecht, Ludger & von Hagen, Jürgen & Wolswijk, Guido, 2009. "Government risk premiums in the bond market: EMU and Canada," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 371-384, September.
    3. Oshiro, Naoto & Saruwatari, Yasufumi, 2005. "Quantification of sovereign risk: Using the information in equity market prices," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 346-362, December.
    4. Schulz Alexander & Wolff Guntram B., 2009. "The German Sub-national Government Bond Market: Structure, Determinants of Yield Spreads and Berlin’s Forgone Bail-out," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 229(1), pages 61-83, February.
    5. Su-Lien Lu & Ming-Chun Wang, 2012. "How to Measure the Credit Risk of Housing Loans: Evidence from a Taiwanese Bank," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(0), pages 122-138, July.
    6. Radovan Vadovic, 2009. "Early, Late, and Multiple Bidding in Internet Auctions," Working Papers 0904, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
    7. Su-Lien Lu & Ming-Chun Wang, 2012. "How to Measure the Credit Risk of Housing Loans: Evidence from a Taiwanese Bank," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(0), pages 122-138, July.
    8. Iara, Anna & Wolff, Guntram B., 2014. "Rules and risk in the Euro area," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 222-236.
    9. Bernoth, Kerstin & von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2004. "Sovereign risk premia in the European government bond market," ZEI Working Papers B 26-2003, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    10. Ondřej Schneider & Petr Hedbávný & Jan Zápal, 2007. "A Fiscal Rule that Has Teeth: A Suggestion for a “Fiscal Sustainability Council” Underpinned by the Financial Markets," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 32-53, March.
    11. Bernoth, Kerstin & von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2012. "Sovereign risk premiums in the European government bond market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 975-995.
    12. Clara Galliani & Stefano Zedda, 2015. "Will the Bail-in Break the Vicious Circle Between Banks and their Sovereign?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 45(4), pages 597-614, April.
    13. Su-Lien Lu & Chau-Jung Kuo, 2005. "How to gauge the credit risk of guarantee issues in a Taiwanese bills finance company: an empirical investigation using a market-based approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 1153-1164.
    14. Petr Hedbávný & Ondrej Schneider & Jan Zápal, 2005. "A Fiscal Rule that has Teeth: A Suggestion for a ‘Fiscal Sustainability Council’ underpinned by the Financial Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 1499, CESifo Group Munich.
    15. Varga, Janos & in 't Veld, Jan, 2011. "A model-based analysis of the impact of Cohesion Policy expenditure 2000–06: Simulations with the QUEST III endogenous R&D model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, pages 647-663.

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