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Fiscal Discipline and the Question of Convergence of National Interest Rates in the European Union

  • Volbert Alexander


  • Peter Anker
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    In this paper, interest-rate convergence in Europe is related to the behavior of integrated federal political systems. Our main results are: Before the final fixing of exchange rates, national interest rates will converge toward the German bond yield in countries eligible to become EMU members in part because no-bailout clauses are not credible in the starting period of EMU. Should such clauses become more credible after 2002 because the EU government and its redistributive mechanisms remain weak, the “market-discipline hypothesis” has a greater chance to apply. But it may still prove unequal to the task of discouraging excessive fiscal deficits on its own. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1997

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    Article provided by Springer in its journal Open Economies Review.

    Volume (Year): 8 (1997)
    Issue (Month): 4 (October)
    Pages: 335-352

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    Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:8:y:1997:i:4:p:335-352
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    1. Andrew K. Rose & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1993. "European Exchange Rate Credibility Before the Fall," NBER Working Papers 4495, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    3. Buiter, Willem H. & Corsetti, Giancarlo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1992. "`Excessive Deficits': Sense and Nonsense in the Treaty of Maastricht," CEPR Discussion Papers 750, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Alberto Alesina & Guido Tabellini, 1990. "A Positive Theory of Fiscal Deficits and Government Debt," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(3), pages 403-414.
    5. Peter Isard & Michael P. Dooley, 1991. "Establishing Incentive Structures and Planning Agencies That Support Market-Oriented Transformations," IMF Working Papers 91/113, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi & Luigi Spaventa, 1996. "High Yields: The Spread on German Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 5408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. René Garcia & Pierre Perron, 1995. "An Analysis of the Real Interest Rate Under Regime Shifts," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-05, CIRANO.
    8. Bayoumi, Tamim & Goldstein, Morris & Woglom, Geoffrey, 1995. "Do Credit Markets Discipline Sovereign Borrowers? Evidence from US States," CEPR Discussion Papers 1088, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    10. Barry Eichengreen & Charles Wyplosz, 1993. "The Unstable EMS," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(1), pages 51-144.
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