Long Term Debt and the Political Support of a Monetary Union
This paper examines the role of long-term debt in political support for a monetary union or, more generally, an inflation-reduction policy. The central idea is that the decision on membership of the union leads to a redistribution between debtors and creditors, if they are holding long-term debt with a nominally fixed interest rate, as well as taxpayers. For example, if joining the union means a decrease in the inflation rate, creditors should favour joining while debtors should be against it. A government of a high-inflation country might strategically try to exploit this effect by selling more long-term debt denominated in its own currency at a fixed nominal rate rather than a foreign currency such as the dollar (or, almost equivalently, as floating-rate debt or rolled-over short-term debt) to its citizens. We show that the effect on political support is unclear. While the ‘creditor effect’ of increasing the number of agents holding domestically denominated debt helps generate support for joining the union, the ‘tax effect’ of having to raise more taxes in order to pay for the increased real-debt payments after a successful monetary union works in the opposite way. The paper then studies a number of special cases and ramifications; the case of Italy is examined more closely. The paper argues that recent debt-management policy in Italy probably eroded political support for actions aimed at enhancing EMU membership chances.
|Date of creation:||Mar 1997|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ.|
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820
|Order Information:|| Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Eijffinger, Sylvester C. W. & Huizinga, Harry P. & Lemmen, Jan J. G., 1998.
"Short-term and long-term government debt and nonresident interest withholding taxes,"
Journal of Public Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 309-334, June.
- Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Huizinga, H.P. & Lemmen, J.J.G., 1996. "Short-Term and Long-Term Government Debt and Nonresident Interest Withholding Taxes," Discussion Paper 1996-88, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Huizinga, H.P. & Lemmen, J.J.G., 1998. "Short-term and long-term government debt and non resident interest witholding taxes," Other publications TiSEM 68bb4272-d036-4192-9291-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Harry P. Huizinga & Jan J.G. Lemmen & Sylvester C.W. Eijffinger, 1997. "Short-Term and Long-Term Government Debt and Nonresident Interest Withholding Taxes," FMG Discussion Papers dp275, Financial Markets Group.
- Kenen,Peter B., 1995. "Economic and Monetary Union in Europe," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521558839, September.
- Alex Cukierman, 1992. "Central Bank Strategy, Credibility, and Independence: Theory and Evidence," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262031981, July.
- Cukierman Alex, 1992. "Central Bank Strategy, Credibility, And Independance: Theory And Evidence," Journal des Economistes et des Etudes Humaines, De Gruyter, vol. 3(4), pages 1-10, December.
- Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-329, June.
- Martin Feldstein & Charles Horioka, 1979. "Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 0310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alberto Giovannini, 1996. "The Debate on Money in Europe," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262071681, July.
- Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 1995. "Do Good Or Do Well? Public Debt Management In A Two-Party Economy," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 59-78, 03.
- G Milesi-Feretti, 1991. "Do Good or Do Well? Public Debt Management in a Two-Party Economy," CEP Discussion Papers dp0053, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Bohn, Henning, 1990. "A positive theory of foreign currency debt," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3-4), pages 273-292, November.
- Henning Bohn, "undated". "A Positive Theory of Foreign Currency Debt," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 19-88, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1603. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.