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The lira and the pound in the 1992 currency crisis: Fundamentals or speculation?

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  • Michele Fratianni
  • Michael Artis

Abstract

The prevalent explanation of the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) currency crisis of September, 1992 is that myopic speculation prevailed over the “fundamentals.” Our paper explores the reasons why the Italian lira and the U.K. pound were attacked and, subsequently, forced out of the ERM. The crisis was sparked by a common awareness that political unification and the commitment to monetary union had petered out in the summer of 1992, leaving the field open to speculators to pick countries with the weakest fundamentals (Italy) or with policy makers who feared jeopardizing an economic recovery by keeping the currency in the ERM (the U.K.). Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1996

Suggested Citation

  • Michele Fratianni & Michael Artis, 1996. "The lira and the pound in the 1992 currency crisis: Fundamentals or speculation?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 573-589, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:7:y:1996:i:1:p:573-589
    DOI: 10.1007/BF01886214
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1991. "The Simplest Test of Target Zone Credibility," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(3), pages 655-665, September.
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    6. Giavazzi, Francesco & Spaventa, Luigi, 1990. "The `New' EMS," CEPR Discussion Papers 369, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Rose, Andrew K. & Svensson, Lars E. O., 1994. "European exchange rate credibility before the fall," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1185-1216, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Roberto Iacono & Marco Ranaldi, 2018. "Sources of Inequality in Italy," Working Papers 479, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    2. John Ryan, 2009. "China and the Global Roles of Currencies," Working Papers 2009.8, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    3. Woo, Kai-Yin, 1999. "Cointegration analysis of the intensity of the ERM currencies under the European Monetary System," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 393-405, November.
    4. Fendel Ralf & Frenkel Michael, 2019. "Putting European Monetary Integration into a Historical Perspective: Two Decades of the European Monetary System versus Two Decades of the European Monetary Union," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 239(5-6), pages 769-795, October.
    5. Kobayashi, Teruyoshi, 2005. "A model of monetary unification under asymmetric information," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15.
    6. Michele Fratianni, 2012. "150 years of Italian political unity and economic dualism: An Introduction," Rivista italiana degli economisti, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 3, pages 335-346.
    7. Jo-Hui Chen & Chih-Sean Chen, 2012. "The study of contagious paces of financial crises," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 46(6), pages 1825-1846, October.
    8. George S. Tavlas, 2000. "On the Exchange Rate as a Nominal Anchor: The Rise and Fall of the Credibility Hypothesis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(233), pages 183-201, June.
    9. Amato, Amedeo & Tronzano, Marco, 2000. "Fiscal policy, debt management and exchange rate credibility: Lessons from the recent Italian experience," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 921-943, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    EMS; currency speculation; credibility; F31; F33; C12;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General

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