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Discrimination par le marché entre les dettes des États membres de l'UEM

  • Frédéric Zumer
  • Anne Frémont
  • Jacques Mélitz

[eng] What will become of the interest spreads on the debts of different sovereign borrowers under EMU ? Will these always be small and merely reflect differences in liquidity, as they do today, or will they progressively widen and also reflect default risk? Such are the questions posed in this study. We offer a variety of reasons for doubting that the current convergence of interest rates in the euro zone constitutes a permanent situation. Prominent among these is a large set of new data of our own construction concerning the spreads on the debts of lower-level governments, or governments without money-issuing power, for a dozen countries. Those spreads clearly give rise to the suspicion that default-risk premia may reappear in the yields on the debts of different sovereigns in EMU. JEL Codes : E43, E60, F36 [fre] Que deviendront les « spreads1 » de taux d'intérêt qui prévalaient encore récemment entre les dettes des différents États souverains de l'Union économique et monétaire? Ces spreads, bien sur, ne résulteront plus des primes de taux de change. Néanmoins, ils pourraient clairement persister. Ils proviendraient alors pour une part des différences de liquidité relativement aux émissions d'un emprunteur de référence, sûrement le « Bund » allemand ou le Trésor public français, ou une combinaison des deux (peut-être aussi avec le gouvernement néerlandais). Mais, de toute évidence, les spreads pourraient également persister en raison du risque de défaut. Dès lors, quelle sera l'ampleur de ces différentiels et jusqu'où pourraient-ils augmenter en fonction du risque ? Telle est l'une des questions importantes que se posent actuellement les économistes qui étudient l'UEM, en raison notamment de son lien étroit avec les préoccupations sous-jacentes au traité de Maastricht : dérapage possible des dettes publiques, risques de monétisation, refus proclamé du « bail-out » (renflouement).

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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

Volume (Year): 72 (2000)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 39-69

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Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_2000_num_72_1_1569
Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.2000.1569
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/ofce

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  1. Eichengreen, Barry & Portes, Richard, 1986. "The Anatomy of Financial Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 130, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Angeloni, I. & Violi, R., 1997. "Long-Term Interest Rate Convergence in Europe and the Probability of EMU," Papers 322, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  3. Favero, Carlo A. & Giavazzi, Francesco & Spaventa, Luigi, 1996. "High Yields: The Spread on German Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 1330, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Bayoumi, Tamim & Goldstein, Morris & Woglom, Geoffrey, 1995. "Do Credit Markets Discipline Sovereign Borrowers? Evidence from the U.S. States," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1046-59, November.
  5. Bayoumi, Tamim & Goldstein, Morris & Woglom, Geoffrey, 1995. "Do Credit Markets Discipline Sovereign Borrowers? Evidence from US States," CEPR Discussion Papers 1088, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Jan J.G. Lemmen & Charles A.E. Goodhart, 1999. "Credit Risks and European Government Bond Markets: A Panel Data Econometric Analysis," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 77-107, Winter.
  7. Robert N. McCauley & William R. White, 1997. "The Euro and European financial markets," BIS Working Papers 41, Bank for International Settlements.
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