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Long-Term Interest Rate Convergence in Europe and the Probability of EMU


  • Angeloni, I.
  • Violi, R.


Using a simple method, based on forward interest spreads, we analyse the recent movements in the 10-year yield differentials between three currencies (Italian lira; Spanish peseta; Swedish krona) and the DM in order to gauge the extent to which the reduction in these differentials was due to market arbitrage triggered by the expectation of EMU or to more "fundamental" factors (lower inflationary expectations; improved fiscal outlook).

Suggested Citation

  • Angeloni, I. & Violi, R., 1997. "Long-Term Interest Rate Convergence in Europe and the Probability of EMU," Papers 322, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  • Handle: RePEc:fth:banita:322

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Lucia Quaglia, 2003. "European Monetary Integration and the ‘Constitutionalization’ of Macroeconomic Policy Making," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 235-251, September.
    2. Favero, Carlo A. & Giavazzi, Francesco & Iacone, Fabrizio & Guido Tabellini, 2000. "Extracting information from asset prices: The methodology of EMU calculators," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(9), pages 1607-1632, October.
    3. Abaffy, Jozsef & Bertocchi, Marida & Dupacova, Jitka & Giacometti, Rosella & Huskova, Marie & Moriggia, Vittorio, 2003. "A nonparametric model for analysis of the EURO bond market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1113-1131, April.
    4. Alberto Baffigi & Marcello Pagnini & Fabio Quintiliani, 1999. "Industrial District and Local Banks: Do the Twins Ever Meet?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 347, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Ignazio Angeloni & Luc Aucremanne & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2006. "Price setting and inflation persistence: did EMU matter?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(46), pages 353-387, April.
    6. Anne Frémont & Jacques Mélitz & Frédéric Zumer, 2000. "Discrimination par le marché entre les dettes des États membres de l'UEM," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 72(1), pages 39-69.
    7. Bates, David S., 1999. "Financial markets' assessments of EMU," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 229-269, December.
    8. Livio Stracca, "undated". "Economics and Politics: Interest Rate Convergence in Europe and EMU," Discussion Papers in European Economics 99/6, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
    9. Martin Cincibuch & Matrina Horníková, 2008. "Measuring the Financial Markets’ Perception of EMU Enlargement: The Role of Ambiguity Aversion," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(05-06), pages 210-230, August.

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    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects


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