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Valutation, Liquidity and Risk in Government Bond Markets

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  • Carlo Favero
  • Marco Pagano
  • Ernst-Ludwig von Thadden

Abstract

We explore the determinants of yield differentials between sovereign bonds in the Euro area. There is a common trend in yield differentials, which is correlated with a measure of the international risk factor. In contrast, liquidity differentials display sizeable heterogeneity and no common factor. We present a model that predicts that yield differentials should increase in both liquidity and risk, with an interaction term whose magnitude and sign depends on the size of the liquidity differential with respect to the reference country. Testing these predictions on daily data, we find that the international risk factor is consistently priced, while liquidity differentials are priced only for a subset of countries and their interaction with the risk factor is crucial to detect their effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlo Favero & Marco Pagano & Ernst-Ludwig von Thadden, 2005. "Valutation, Liquidity and Risk in Government Bond Markets," Working Papers 281, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    • Handle: RePEc:igi:igierp:281
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sebastian Weber, 2009. "European Financial Market Integration: A Closer Look at Government Bonds in Eurozone Countries," Working Paper / FINESS 1.1b, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Dirk Bursian & Sven Fürth, 2015. "Trust Me! I am a European Central Banker," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(8), pages 1503-1530, December.
    3. Faruk Balli, 2009. "Spillover effects on government bond yields in euro zone. Does full financial integration exist in European government bond markets?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 33(4), pages 331-363, October.
    4. Marta Gómez-Puig, 2007. "EU-15 sovereign governments' cost of borrowing after seven years of Monetary Union," Working Papers 07-03, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
    5. Schuknecht, Ludger & von Hagen, Jürgen & Wolswijk, Guido, 2009. "Government risk premiums in the bond market: EMU and Canada," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 371-384, September.
    6. Peter G. Dunne & Michael J. Moore & Richard Portes, 2007. "Benchmark Status in Fixed‐Income Asset Markets," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(9‐10), pages 1615-1634, November.
    7. Andrea Coppola & Gustavo Piga, "undated". "Watering the Garden of Government Securities:Measuring the "Bunching" Effect in Euro Sovereign Bond Markets," Working Papers wp2008-5, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    8. Andrea Coppola & Alessandro Girardi & Gustavo Piga, 2013. "Overcrowding Versus Liquidity In The Euro Sovereign Bond Markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 307-318, October.
    9. Thanasis N. Christodoulopoulos & Ioulia Grigoratou, 2005. "Measuring Liquidity in the Greek Government Securities Market," Working Papers 23, Bank of Greece.
    10. Pawel Gajewski, 2014. "Sovereign spreads and financial market behavior before and during the crisis," Lodz Economics Working Papers 4/2014, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology.
    11. Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, 2009. "Flight-to-Quality or Flight-to-Liquidity? Evidence from the Euro-Area Bond Market," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 925-957.
    12. Coluzzi, Chiara & Ginebri, Sergio & Turco, Manuel, 2008. "Measuring and Analyzing the Liquidity of the Italian Treasury Security Wholesale Secondary Market," Economics & Statistics Discussion Papers esdp08044, University of Molise, Department of Economics.
    13. Katia Rocha & Ajax Moreira, 2009. "O Impacto da Política Fiscal nos Spreads Soberanos: A Austeridade Fiscal e a Qualidade do Ajuste," Discussion Papers 1422, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.

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