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Policy Credibility and Sovereign Credit: The Case of New EU Member States

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  • Mr. Manmohan S. Kumar
  • Jirí Jonáš
  • Mr. David Hauner

Abstract

References to policy credibility, particularly with regard to fiscal policy, are ubiquitous in both economic literature and financial markets, even though it is not directly observable. The case of the EU new member states (NMS)-emerging markets joining a supranational entity that is generally considered to have higher policy credibility-provides a unique experiment to assess the effects of credibility on sovereign credit. This paper examines the impact of EU accession on three key variables that can reflect in varying degrees policy credibility: sovereign ratings, foreign currency spreads, and local currency yields. The results suggest that the NMS appear to have enjoyed higher credibility compared to their peers.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Manmohan S. Kumar & Jirí Jonáš & Mr. David Hauner, 2007. "Policy Credibility and Sovereign Credit: The Case of New EU Member States," IMF Working Papers 2007/001, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2007/001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ms. Susan M Schadler & Mr. Pipat Luengnaruemitchai, 2007. "Do Economists’ and Financial Markets’ Perspectives on the New Members of the EU differ?," IMF Working Papers 2007/065, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Marta Necadova, 2019. "Changes in Economic Sentiment Indicators before and after Economic Crisis (Position of Visegrad Group and Germany in EU)," Central European Business Review, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2019(4), pages 55-85.
    3. Mr. Martin Cihak & Mr. Wim Fonteyne, 2009. "Five Years After: European Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States," IMF Working Papers 2009/068, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Debarsy, Nicolas & Dossougoin, Cyrille & Ertur, Cem & Gnabo, Jean-Yves, 2018. "Measuring sovereign risk spillovers and assessing the role of transmission channels: A spatial econometrics approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 21-45.
    5. Ante Žigman & Boris Cota, 2011. "The impact of fiscal policy on government bond spreads in emerging markets," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 35(4), pages 385-412.
    6. Christiane Nickel & Philipp Rother & Jan-Christoph Ruelke, 2011. "Fiscal variables and bond spreads - evidence from Eastern European countries and Turkey," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(17), pages 1291-1307.
    7. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Tatiana Acar, 2018. "Fiscal credibility and disagreement in expectations about inflation: evidence for Brazil," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(2), pages 826-843.
    8. Martin Èihák & Srobona Mitra, 2009. "The Financial Crisis and European Emerging Economies," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 59(6), pages 541-553, December.

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