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Implementing Macroprudential Policy in NiGEM

Author

Listed:
  • Oriol Carreras
  • E Philip Davis
  • Ian Hurst
  • Iana Liadze
  • Rebecca Piggott
  • James Warren

Abstract

In this paper we incorporate a macroprudential policy model within a semi-structural global macroeconomic model, NiGEM. The existing NiGEM model is expanded for the UK, Germany and Italy to include two macroprudential tools: loan-to-value ratios on mortgage lending and variable bank capital adequacy targets. The former has an effect on the economy via its impact on the housing market while the latter acts on the lending spreads of corporate and households. A systemic risk index that tracks the likelihood of the occurrence of a banking crisis is modelled to establish thresholds at which macroprudential policies should be activated by the authorities. We then show counterfactual scenarios, including a historic dynamic simulation of the subprime crisis and the endogenous response of policy thereto, based on the macroprudential block as well as performing a cost-benefit analysis of macroprudential policies. Conclusions are drawn relating to use of this tool for prediction and policy analysis, as well as some of the limitations and potential further research.

Suggested Citation

  • Oriol Carreras & E Philip Davis & Ian Hurst & Iana Liadze & Rebecca Piggott & James Warren, 2018. "Implementing Macroprudential Policy in NiGEM," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 490, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:nsr:niesrd:490
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    Cited by:

    1. Carro, Adrian, 2023. "Taming the housing roller coaster: The impact of macroprudential policy on the house price cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    2. Bonucchi, Manuel & Catalano, Michele, 2022. "How severe are the EBA macroeconomic scenarios for the Italian Economy? A joint probability approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    3. Carreras, Oriol & Davis, E. Philip & Piggott, Rebecca, 2018. "Assessing macroprudential tools in OECD countries within a cointegration framework," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 112-130.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    macroprudential policy; house prices; credit; systemic risk; macroeconomic modelling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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