A comprehensive short-run analysis of a (possible) Turkish Phillips curve
The studies on Phillips curves relating the rate of unemployment to the rate of inflation are the results of the search for a reliable tool for forecasting inflation and implementing monetary policy. The original Phillips curve has attracted considerable attention and since then, it has undergone several important changes. Although the evidence of a negative relationship between the rate of change in a money variable and unemployment rate has not been proven, it is still considered to be critical for policymaking and is on researchers' agenda (Niskaken, 2002). The existence of a Phillips curve for Turkey is investigated with the linear and non-linear specifications for the conventional and new Keynesian Phillips curves with inflation expectations and natural rate of unemployment for annual (1980-2001) and semiannual (1988:2-2003:1) data sets. The results indicate no evidence of a Phillips curve for all specifications and both data sets. The semiannual data seems to have a better fit in all specifications compared to the annual data. Inflation expectations are found to be significant for inflation rather than unemployment rate in the current period. The results imply that Turkey has to solve its inflation problem by proper policies aimed at lowering the inflation expectations in the economy.
Volume (Year): 37 (2005)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RAEC20|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Andrew Haldane & Danny Quah, 2000.
"UK Philips Curves and Monetary Policy,"
CEP Discussion Papers
dp0444, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Samavati, Hedayeh & Dilts, David A. & Deitsch, Clarence R., 1994. "The Phillips Curve: Evidence of a "lady or tiger dilemma"," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 333-345.
- Fabiani, Silvia & Morgan, Julian, 2003. "Aggregation and euro area Phillips curves," Working Paper Series 0213, European Central Bank.
- Koustas, Zisimos & Serletis, Apostolos, 2003. "Long-run Phillips-type trade-offs in European Union countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 679-701, July.
- Rebecca M. Blank, 2000. "Strong Employment, Low Inflation: How Has the US Economy Done So Well?," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 26(s1), pages 175-186, July.
- Andrew Atkeson & Lee E. Ohanian, 2001. "Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-11.
- David Gruen & Adrian Pagan & Christopher Thompson, 1999.
"The Phillips Curve in Australia,"
RBA Research Discussion Papers
rdp1999-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- McDonald, Ian M, 2002. "Equilibrium Unemployment: Theory and Measurement in Australia Using the Phillips Curve," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 78(243), pages 451-70, December.
- Hakkio, Craig S. & Rush, Mark, 1991.
"Cointegration: how short is the long run?,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 571-581, December.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "Inflation and monetary policy in the twentieth century," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 22-45.
- Guy Debelle & James Vickery, 1997.
"Is the Phillips Curve a Curve? Some Evidence and Implications for Australia,"
RBA Research Discussion Papers
rdp9706, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Debelle, Guy & Vickery, James, 1998. "Is the Phillips Curve a Curve? Some Evidence and Implications for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(227), pages 384-98, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:37:y:2005:i:5:p:581-591. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.