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Ham Petrol ve Akaryakit Urunu Fiyat Artislarinin Turkiye'deki Enflasyonist Etkileri (= Inflationary Effects of Increases in Prices of Improted Crude-Oil and Oil-Products in Turkey)

  • Aykut Kibritcioglu

    (Ankara University, Turkey)

  • Bengi Kibritcioglu

    (Undersecretariat of the Treasury, Turkey)

Ham petrol fiyatlarindaki artislarin petrol ithalatcisi ulkelerdeki olasi enflasyonist etkileri, ozellikle 1970’li yillarda Dunya’da yasanan iki buyuk petrol krizinden bu yana tartisilir olmustur. Bir ham petrol ithalatcisi olan Turkiye’de de, enflasyonun onemli kaynaklarindan birinin ham petrol ithal fiyatlarindaki artislar oldugu sik sik gundeme gelmektedir. Bu calismanin temel konusunu, Turkiye tarafindan ithal edilen ham petrolun Dunya fiyatinda meydana gelen degismelerin (ham petrolun yerli rafinerilerde islenmesiyle elde edilen LPG, benzin, gazyagi, motorin ve fuel-oil gibi cesitli akaryakit urunlerinin maliyetlerini etkilemek suretiyle) ekonomideki sektorel ve genel fiyat duzeylerini nasil ve ne olcude degistirdiginin analizi olusturmaktadir. Turkiye’deki ham petrol ve akaryakit urunleri sektorlerinin ic uretim, ithalat, ic tuketim, ihracat ve fiyat gelismeleri (1961-1997) acisindan temel karakteristikleri sergilendikten sonra, ham petrol ithal ve yurtici akaryakit urunu fiyat artislarinin Turkiye’de nasil ve ne bicimde enflasyonist etkiler yaratiyor olabilecegi sematik olarak ozetlenmektedir. Daha sonra, Turkiye’deki sektorel ve genel fiyat artislarinin ne olcude ham petrol ve petrol urunlerinin fiyat artislarindan kaynaklandigi, DIE’nin Turkiye icin hesapladigi 1979, 1985 ve 1990 yili girdi-cikti tablolari yardimiyla arastirilmaktadir. Bu analizde ulasilan sonuclarin karsilastirilabilmesi amaciyla, ham petrol ithal fiyatlarindaki artislarin Turkiye’deki enflasyonu ne olcude etkiledigi, Ocak 1986 - Mart 1998 donemine ait aylik veriler yardimiyla ve VAR yontemi kullanilarak incelenmektedir. (This abstract and the paper are in Turkish. Version: April 1999)

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0306003.

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Length: 73 pages
Date of creation: 06 Jun 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0306003
Note: Type of Document - MSWord/PDF; prepared on PC; to print on any printer; pages: 73 ; figures: included
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