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Forecasting the term structures of Treasury and corporate yields using dynamic Nelson-Siegel models

  • Yu, Wei-Choun
  • Zivot, Eric

We extend Diebold and Li's dynamic Nelson-Siegel three-factor model to a broader empirical prospective by including the evaluation of the state space approach and by using nine different ratings for corporate bonds. We find that the dynamic Nelson-Siegel factor AR(1) model outperforms other competitors on the out-of-sample forecast accuracy, especially on the investment-grade bonds for the short-term forecast horizon and on the high-yield bonds for the long-term forecast horizon. The dynamic Nelson-Siegel factor state space model, however, becomes appealing on the high-yield bonds in the short-term forecast horizon, where the factor dynamics are more likely time-varying and parameter instability is more probable in the model specification.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 27 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 579-591

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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:27:y::i:2:p:579-591
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  1. Hans Dewachter, 2004. "Macro factors and the term structure of interest rates," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 25, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
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  9. Wei-Choun Yu & Donald M. Salyards, 2009. "Parsimonious modeling and forecasting of corporate yield curve," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 73-88.
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  13. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
  14. John H. Cochrane & Monika Piazzesi, 2002. "Bond Risk Premia," NBER Working Papers 9178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  17. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-89, October.
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