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Identifying Volatility Risk Premium from Fixed Income Asian Options

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  • Caio Ibsen R. Almeida
  • José Valentim M. Vicente

Abstract

We provide approximation formulas for at-the-money asian option prices to extract volatility risk premium from a joint dataset of bonds and option prices. The dynamic model generates stochastic volatility and a time-varying volatility risk premium, which explicitly depends on the average cross section of bond yields and on the time series behavior of option prices. When estimated using a joint dataset of Brazilian local bonds and asian options, the model generates bond risk premium strongly correlated (89%) with a widely accepted emerging markets benchmark index, and a negative volatility risk premium implying that investors might be using options as insurance in this market. Volatility premium explains a significant portion (32.5%) of bond premium, confirming that options are indeed important to identify risk premium in dynamic term structure models.

Suggested Citation

  • Caio Ibsen R. Almeida & José Valentim M. Vicente, 2007. "Identifying Volatility Risk Premium from Fixed Income Asian Options," Working Papers Series 136, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:136
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    1. repec:eee:quaeco:v:68:y:2018:i:c:p:190-202 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:67:n:2:a:6 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Vicente, José Valentim Machado & Guillen, Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho, 2013. "Do inflation-linked bonds contain information about future inflation?," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 67(2), June.
    4. Kellard, Neil M. & Jiang, Ying & Wohar, Mark, 2015. "Spurious long memory, uncommon breaks and the implied–realized volatility puzzle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 36-54.
    5. Almeida, Caio & Vicente, José, 2009. "Are interest rate options important for the assessment of interest rate risk?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1376-1387, August.
    6. repec:eee:ecmode:v:65:y:2017:i:c:p:129-137 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Kellard, Neil & Dunis, Christian & Sarantis, Nicholas, 2010. "Foreign exchange, fractional cointegration and the implied-realized volatility relation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 882-891, April.
    8. Matsumura, Marco S. & Vicente, José Valentim Machado, 2010. "The role of macroeconomic variables in sovereign risk," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 229-249, September.
    9. Duyvesteyn, Johan & de Zwart, Gerben, 2015. "Riding the swaption curve," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 57-75.

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