Are interest rate options important for the assessment of interest rate risk?
Fixed income options contain substantial information on the price of interest rate volatility risk. In this paper, we ask if those options will also provide information related to other moments of the objective distribution of interest rates. Based on dynamic term structure models within the class of affine models, we find that interest rate options are useful for the identification of interest rate quantiles. Two three-factor models are adopted and their adequacy to estimate Value at Risk of zero-coupon bonds is tested. We find significant difference on the quantitative assessment of risk when options are (or not) included in the estimation process of each of these dynamic models. Statistical backtests indicate that bond estimated risk is clearly more adequate when options are adopted, although not yet completely satisfactory.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ait-Sahalia, Yacine & Lo, Andrew W., 2000.
"Nonparametric risk management and implied risk aversion,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 9-51.
- Yacine Ait-Sahalia & Andrew W. Lo, 2000. "Nonparametric Risk Management and Implied Risk Aversion," NBER Working Papers 6130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean-Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228.
- Egorov, Alexei V. & Hong, Yongmiao & Li, Haitao, 2006. "Validating forecasts of the joint probability density of bond yields: Can affine models beat random walk?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 255-284.
- Dai, Qiang & Singleton, Kenneth J., 2002. "Expectation puzzles, time-varying risk premia, and affine models of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 415-441, March.
- John H. Cochrane & Monika Piazzesi, 2002.
"The Fed and Interest Rates: A High-Frequency Identification,"
NBER Working Papers
8839, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Monika Piazzesi, 2002. "The Fed and Interest Rates - A High-Frequency Identification," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 90-95, May.
- Kerkhof, F.L.J. & Melenberg, B., 2002.
"Backtesting for Risk-Based Regulatory Capital,"
2002-110, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Pritsker, Matthew, 2006. "The hidden dangers of historical simulation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 561-582, February.
- Paul H. Kupiec, 1995. "Techniques for verifying the accuracy of risk measurement models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Cheridito, Patrick & Filipovic, Damir & Kimmel, Robert L., 2007. "Market price of risk specifications for affine models: Theory and evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 123-170, January.
- Almeida, Caio & Vicente, José, 2009.
"Identifying volatility risk premia from fixed income Asian options,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 652-661, April.
- Caio Ibsen R. Almeida & José Valentim M. Vicente, 2007. "Identifying Volatility Risk Premium from Fixed Income Asian Options," Working Papers Series 136, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
- Yamai, Yasuhiro & Yoshiba, Toshinao, 2005. "Value-at-risk versus expected shortfall: A practical perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 997-1015, April.
- George Chacko, 2002. "Pricing Interest Rate Derivatives: A General Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 195-241, March.
- Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2000. "Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 1943-1978, October.
- Caio Almeida & Jeremy J. Graveline & Scott Joslin, 2005. "Do Options Contain Information About Excess Bond Returns?," IBMEC RJ Economics Discussion Papers 2005-04, Economics Research Group, IBMEC Business School - Rio de Janeiro.
- Darrell Duffie & Rui Kan, 1996. "A Yield-Factor Model Of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 379-406.
- Mark Rubinstein., 1994. "Implied Binomial Trees," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-232, University of California at Berkeley.
- Bates, David S, 1996. "Jumps and Stochastic Volatility: Exchange Rate Processes Implicit in Deutsche Mark Options," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 69-107.
- Breeden, Douglas T & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1978. "Prices of State-contingent Claims Implicit in Option Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(4), pages 621-51, October.
- Bjørn Eraker, 2004. "Do Stock Prices and Volatility Jump? Reconciling Evidence from Spot and Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1367-1404, 06.
- Rubinstein, Mark, 1994. " Implied Binomial Trees," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(3), pages 771-818, July.
- Duffie, Darrell, 2005. "Credit risk modeling with affine processes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 2751-2802, November.
- René Garcia & Éric Renault & Georges Tsafack, 2007. "Proper Conditioning for Coherent VaR in Portfolio Management," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(3), pages 483-494, March.
- Christoffersen, Peter F, 1998. "Evaluating Interval Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 841-62, November.
- Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
- Bing Han, 2007. "Stochastic Volatilities and Correlations of Bond Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1491-1524, 06.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:33:y:2009:i:8:p:1376-1387. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.