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Macroeconomic Shocks and the CAPM: Evidence from the UK Stockmarket

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  • Clare, Andrew, et al

Abstract

The UK stockmarket is tested for mean variance efficiency (MVE) in the sense that sectoral stock returns satisfy the restrictions implied by CAPM. There are two main innovations in the paper. One is the use of a model for excess returns in which the conditional covariance matrix of returns varies over time due to the simultaneous influence of four macroeconomic shocks. The other is the use of a likelihood ratio test for MVE calculated from analytical derivatives of the likelihood function in order to reduce the computational burden of these high parameter dimensional models. The model with macroeconomic shocks is compared with the multivariate ARCH-in-mean model. Although the macroeconomic shocks model is found to perform slightly better than the ARCH model, and both produce a significant and plausible estimate of the coefficient of risk aversion, the null hypothesis that the UK stockmarket is mean variance efficient is rejected for both models in favour of the alternative hypothesis that equity returns are an unrestricted linear function of asset shares. Another important finding is that the most important shocks affecting the UK stockmarket either have an international origin or are due to the bond market. Copyright @ 1998 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. All rights reserved.

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  • Clare, Andrew, et al, 1998. "Macroeconomic Shocks and the CAPM: Evidence from the UK Stockmarket," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(2), pages 111-126, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:3:y:1998:i:2:p:111-26
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    Cited by:

    1. T.J. Flavin & M.R. Wickens, 2003. "Macroeconomic influences on optimal asset allocation," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(2), pages 207-231.
    2. N. Groenewold, 2000. "The Sensitivity of Tests of Asset Pricing Models to the IID-normal Assumptions: Contemporaneous evidence from the US and UK stock markets," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 00-06, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    3. Balázs Égert & Evžen Kočenda, 2011. "Time-varying synchronization of European stock markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 393-407, April.
    4. Xing, Xuejing & Howe, John S., 2003. "The empirical relationship between risk and return: evidence from the UK stock market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 329-346.
    5. Thomas J. Flavin, 2006. "How Risk Averse are Fund Managers? Evidence from Irish Mutual Funds," Economics Department Working Paper Series n1630206, Department of Economics, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
    6. Tienyu Hwang & Simon Gao & Heather Owen, 2012. "A two‐pass model study of the CAPM: evidence from the UK stock market," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 29(2), pages 89-104, June.
    7. Andrew P. Blake, 2004. "Analytic Derivatives for Linear Rational Expectations Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 24(1), pages 77-96, August.

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