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Contagion in Eurozone sovereign bond markets? The good, the bad and the ugly

Author

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  • Cronin, David
  • Flavin, Thomas J.
  • Sheenan, Lisa

Abstract

We test for contagion between Eurozone bond markets during the sovereign debt crisis. Using a three-regime Markov-switching VAR, we identify two distinct crisis phases (the bad and the ugly) with differing patterns of shock transmission. Evidence of contagion is scant.

Suggested Citation

  • Cronin, David & Flavin, Thomas J. & Sheenan, Lisa, 2016. "Contagion in Eurozone sovereign bond markets? The good, the bad and the ugly," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 5-8.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:143:y:2016:i:c:p:5-8
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2016.02.031
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    Cited by:

    1. David Cronin & Peter Dunne & Kieran McQuinn, 2019. "Have Irish Sovereign Bonds Decoupled from the Euro Area Periphery, and Why?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 50(3), pages 529-556.
    2. Flavin, Thomas J. & Lagoa-Varela, Dolores, 2021. "On the stability of stock-bond comovements across market conditions in the Eurozone periphery," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    3. David Cronin & Peter Dunne, 2019. "Have Sovereign Bond Market Relationships Changed in the Euro Area? Evidence from Italy," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 54(4), pages 250-258, July.
    4. David Cronin, 2020. "Are Member States’ Budgetary Policies Adhering to the EU Fiscal Rules?," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 66(1), pages 47-64.
    5. António Afonso & Mina Kazemi, 2022. "Sovereign bond yield spreads spillovers in the Economic and Monetary Union," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2615-2626, April.
    6. Garcia-de-Andoain, Carlos & Kremer, Manfred, 2017. "Beyond spreads: Measuring sovereign market stress in the euro area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 153-156.
    7. Gkillas, Konstantinos & Longin, François, 2018. "Financial market activity under capital controls: Lessons from extreme events," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 10-13.
    8. Dirceu Pereira, 2018. "Financial Contagion in the BRICS Stock Markets: An empirical analysis of the Lehman Brothers Collapse and European Sovereign Debt Crisis," Journal of Economics and Financial Analysis, Tripal Publishing House, vol. 2(1), pages 1-44.
    9. Thomas Flavin & Lisa Sheenan, 2025. "Can green bonds be a safe haven for equity investors?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(3), pages 2270-2283, July.
    10. Oussama Kchaou & Makram Bellalah & Sofiane Tahi, 2022. "Transmission of the Greek crisis on the sovereign debt markets in the euro area," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 1117-1139, June.
    11. Nan, Shijing & Wang, Minna & You, Wanhai & Guo, Yawei, 2023. "Making text count: Identifying systemic risk spillover channels in the Chinese banking sector using annual reports text," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
    12. Mardi Dungey & Thomas Flavin & Lisa Sheenan, 2025. "Banks and sovereigns: did adversity bring them closer?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(9), pages 1089-1114, June.
    13. António Afonso & Mina Kazemi, 2018. "Sovereign Bond Yields Spreads Spillovers in the EMU," Working Papers REM 2018/52, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    14. amri amamou, souhir & hellara, slaheddine, 2021. "The dynamic relationship between the sovereign CDS market and the Eurozone sovereign bond market (classified by maturity): Contagion or Spillovers?," MPRA Paper 109038, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Hazar Altınbaş & Vincenzo Pacelli & Edgardo Sica, 2022. "An Empirical Assessment of the Contagion Determinants in the Euro Area in a Period of Sovereign Debt Risk," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 8(2), pages 339-371, July.
    16. Marta Gómez-Puig & Mary Pieterse-Bloem & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2022. ""Dynamic connectedness between credit and liquidity risks in EMU sovereign debt markets"," IREA Working Papers 202217, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Oct 2022.
    17. Babalos, Vassilios & Stavroyiannis, Stavros, 2017. "Modelling correlation dynamics of EMU sovereign debt markets during the recent turmoil," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1021-1029.
    18. Hamill, Philip A. & Li, Youwei & Pantelous, Athanasios A. & Vigne, Samuel A. & Waterworth, James, 2021. "Was a deterioration in ‘connectedness’ a leading indicator of the European sovereign debt crisis?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    19. David Cronin, 2020. "Are Member States’ Budgetary Policies Adhering to the EU Fiscal Rules?," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 66(1), pages 47-64.

    More about this item

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    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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