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Understanding sovereign rating movements in euro area countries

Author

Listed:
  • Pierluigi, Beatrice
  • Brůha, Jan
  • Setzer, Ralph
  • Karber, Moritz

Abstract

This paper investigates the link between sovereign ratings and macroeconomic fundamentals for a group of euro area countries which recorded rating downgrades amid the euro area sovereign debt crisis. We apply an elaborated econometric estimation technique, based on a Bayesian ordered probit model, to understand how the decisions of rating agencies can be explained by economic developments. The estimated model re-produces historical ratings by using a small number of economic and institutional variables, which seem to effectively summarize the large number of criteria used by Moody JEL Classification: C25, G24, H63, H68

Suggested Citation

  • Pierluigi, Beatrice & Brůha, Jan & Setzer, Ralph & Karber, Moritz, 2017. "Understanding sovereign rating movements in euro area countries," Working Paper Series 2011, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20172011
    Note: 591179
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mathis, Jérôme & McAndrews, James & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 2009. "Rating the raters: Are reputation concerns powerful enough to discipline rating agencies?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(5), pages 657-674, July.
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    3. Norbert Gaillard, 2014. "What Is the Value of Sovereign Ratings?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 15(1), pages 208-224, February.
    4. Chen, Sheng-Syan & Chen, Hsien-Yi & Chang, Chong-Chuo & Yang, Shu-Ling, 2013. "How do sovereign credit rating changes affect private investment?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4820-4833.
    5. Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide & Gomes, Pedro, 2012. "Sovereign credit ratings and financial markets linkages: Application to European data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 606-638.
    6. Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2004. "Informational efficiency of credit default swap and stock markets: The impact of credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2813-2843, November.
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    9. Bissoondoyal-Bheenick, Emawtee, 2005. "An analysis of the determinants of sovereign ratings," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 251-280, February.
    10. G. Ferri & L.-G. Liu & J. E. Stiglitz, 1999. "The Procyclical Role of Rating Agencies: Evidence from the East Asian Crisis," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 28(3), pages 335-355, November.
    11. Mora, Nada, 2006. "Sovereign credit ratings: Guilty beyond reasonable doubt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 2041-2062, July.
    12. Polito, Vito & Wickens, Michael, 2015. "Sovereign credit ratings in the European Union: A model-based fiscal analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 220-247.
    13. António Afonso & Pedro Gomes & Philipp Rother, 2011. "Short‐ and long‐run determinants of sovereign debt credit ratings," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gábor Hajnal & Nóra Szûcs, 2018. "The Transparency of Credit Ratings – Reconstruction of Hungary’s Sovereign Rating," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 17(3), pages 29-56.
    2. Mr. Luca A Ricci & Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, 2019. "The Nonlinear Relationship Between Public Debt and Sovereign Credit Ratings," IMF Working Papers 2019/162, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Răzvan, 2020. "Iluzii financiare, Partea întâi [Financial Illusions, Part 1]," MPRA Paper 101201, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Jun 2020.
    4. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2021. "On the duration of sovereign ratings cycle phases," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 512-526.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    euro area crisis; panel probit model; sovereign debt; sovereign rating;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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