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Understanding Rating Movements in Euro Area Countries

Author

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  • Jan Bruha
  • Moritz Karber
  • Beatrice Pierluigi
  • Ralph Setzer

Abstract

This paper investigates the link between sovereign ratings and macroeconomic fundamentals for a group of euro area countries that recorded rating downgrades during the euro area sovereign debt crisis. We apply an elaborated econometric estimation technique, based on a Bayesian ordered probit model, to understand how the decisions of rating agencies can be explained by economic developments. The estimated model reproduces historical ratings by using a small number of economic and institutional variables which seem to effectively summarize the large number of criteria used by Moody's, Standard & Poor's and Fitch in their assignment of sovereign ratings. Our results suggest that the size of the downgrades observed since the start of the sovereign crisis has been broadly in line with the deterioration of economic fundamentals for most countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Bruha & Moritz Karber & Beatrice Pierluigi & Ralph Setzer, 2017. "Understanding Rating Movements in Euro Area Countries," Working Papers 2017/06, Czech National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2017/06
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gábor Hajnal & Nóra Szûcs, 2018. "The Transparency of Credit Ratings – Reconstruction of Hungary’s Sovereign Rating," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 17(3), pages 29-56.
    2. Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov & Mr. Luca A Ricci, 2019. "The Nonlinear Relationship Between Public Debt and Sovereign Credit Ratings," IMF Working Papers 2019/162, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2021. "On the duration of sovereign ratings cycle phases," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 512-526.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Euro area crisis; panel probit model; sovereign debt; sovereign rating;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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