IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/stm/wpaper/14.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Euro Area Sovereign Ratings: An Analysis of Fundamental Criteria and Subjective Judgement

Author

Listed:
  • Rudolf Alvise Lennkh
  • Antonello D'Agostino

Abstract

This paper studies the sovereign ratings of the current 19 euro area Member States from 2005 to 2015. It disentangles the rating drivers into a ‘fundamental’ and ‘subjective’ component using Moody’s methodology, and explores which variables explain the ‘subjective’ component, that is Moody’s judgement. The main results show that judgement is applied to varying degrees, both across countries and over time. We find that past judgement as well as the 10-year government yield spread to the Bund are accurate predictors of the ‘subjective’ rating component. Our results suggest that Credit Rating Agencies should increase their methodological transparency and publish two ratings for each sovereign issuer, namely, i) a quantifiable, ‘fundamental’ rating which policymakers and market participants can replicate, and ii) a final rating, which includes agencies’ judgement.

Suggested Citation

  • Rudolf Alvise Lennkh & Antonello D'Agostino, 2016. "Euro Area Sovereign Ratings: An Analysis of Fundamental Criteria and Subjective Judgement," Working Papers 14, European Stability Mechanism.
  • Handle: RePEc:stm:wpaper:14
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.esm.europa.eu/sites/default/files/wp_14_dagostino_lennkh_2.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Annika Luisa Hofmann & Miguel Ferreira & João Lampreia, 2017. "Case Study: DBRS Sovereign Rating of Portugal. Analysis of Rating Methodology and Rating Decisions," GEE Papers 0073, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Jul 2017.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit rating agencies; sovereign risk; sovereign ratings; euro area crisis;

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:stm:wpaper:14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Karol SISKIND). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/efseulu.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.