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Inflation, the credit market, and economic growth

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  • Niloy Bose

Abstract

This paper presents a model which predicts a negative, non-linear relationship between the rate of inflation and rate of output growth, as observed in many empirical studies. The model describes an economy in which credit market imperfections arise due to asymmetric information between lenders and borrowers. Within this environment, two types of lending regime are possible--a rationing regime, where high and low risk borrowers are separated by means of credit rationing, and a screening regime, where separation takes place through costly information acquisition. An increase in the inflation rate alters lenders' behaviour in such a way (by increasing the incidence of rationing or the level of costly screening, or by switching the lending regime from screening to rationing) that adverse growth effect of inflation is magnified. The analysis provides a basis for the empirical finding that growth effect of inflation may be strongest in some specific range of inflation. Copyright 2002, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Niloy Bose, 2002. "Inflation, the credit market, and economic growth," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 54(3), pages 412-434, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:54:y:2002:i:3:p:412-434
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    Cited by:

    1. Kandil, Magda, 2005. "Money, interest, and prices: Some international evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 129-147.
    2. Nomahlubi Mavikela & Simba Mhaka & Andrew Phiri, 2018. "The inflation-growth relationship in SSA inflation targeting countries," Working Papers 1801, Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University, revised Jan 2018.
    3. Robert Amano & Tom Carter & Kevin Moran, 2012. "Inflation and Growth: A New Keynesian Perspective," CIRANO Working Papers 2012s-20, CIRANO.
    4. Mu-Shun Wang, 2013. "An Investigation of the Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Economies," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 46(4), pages /, December.
    5. Phiri, Andrew, 2013. "Inflation and Economic Growth in Zambia: A Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) Econometric Approach," MPRA Paper 52093, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Kim, Dong-Hyeon & Lin, Shu-Chin, 2011. "Nonlinearity in the financial developmentâincome inequality nexus," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 310-325, September.
    7. Shu-Hua Chen, 2015. "Fiscal and Monetary Policies in a Transactions-Based Endogenous Growth Model with Imperfect Competition," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 66(1), pages 89-111, March.
    8. Hiroki Arato, 2009. "Long-run relationship between inflation and growth in a New Keynesian framework," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 1863-1872.
    9. Khoza, Keorapetse & Thebe, Relebogile & Phiri, Andrew, 2016. "Nonlinear impact of inflation on economic growth in South Africa: A smooth transition regression (STR) analysis," MPRA Paper 73840, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Ehrhart, Hélène & Minea, Alexandru & Villieu, Patrick, 2014. "Debt, seigniorage, and the Growth Laffer Curve in developing countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 199-210.
    11. Huang, Ho-Chuan & Lin, Shu-Chin & Kim, Dong-Hyeon & Yeh, Chih-Chuan, 2010. "Inflation and the finance-growth nexus," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 229-236, January.
    12. Fu-Sheng Hung, 2009. "Explaining the nonlinear effects of financial development on economic growth," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 97(1), pages 41-65, May.
    13. Dimitrios Varvarigos & Nikolaos Kontogiannis, 2017. "Entrepreneurial Status, Social Norms, and Economic Growth," Discussion Papers in Economics 17/05, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.

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