IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgfe/2014-51.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Non-linearity in the Inflation-Growth Relationship in Developing Economies: Evidence from a Semiparametric Panel Model

Author

Listed:
  • Deniz Baglan
  • Emre Yoldas

Abstract

Using data on developing economies, we estimate a flexible semiparametric panel data model that incorporates potentially nonlinear effects of inflation on economic growth. We find that inflation is associated with significantly lower growth only after it reaches about 12 percent, which is notably lower than the comparable estimate obtained from a threshold model. Our results also suggest that models with restrictive functional form assumptions tend to underestimate marginal effects of inflation on economic growth. We also document significant variation in the effect of inflation on growth across countries and over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Deniz Baglan & Emre Yoldas, 2014. "Non-linearity in the Inflation-Growth Relationship in Developing Economies: Evidence from a Semiparametric Panel Model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-51, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2014-51
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2014/201451/201451pap.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    2. Badi H. Baltagi & Dong Li, 2002. "Series Estimation of Partially Linear Panel Data Models with Fixed Effects," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 3(1), pages 103-116, May.
    3. Atish Ghosh & Steven Phillips, 1998. "Warning: Inflation May Be Harmful to Your Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(4), pages 672-710, December.
    4. Michael S. Delgado & Daniel J. Henderson & Christopher F. Parmeter, 2014. "Does Education Matter for Economic Growth?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(3), pages 334-359, June.
    5. StevenN. Durlauf & Andros Kourtellos & ChihMing Tan, 2008. "Are Any Growth Theories Robust?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(527), pages 329-346, March.
    6. Durlauf, Steven N. & Kourtellos, Andros & Minkin, Artur, 2001. "The local Solow growth model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 928-940, May.
    7. Baglan, Deniz & Yoldas, Emre, 2014. "Non-linearity in the inflation–growth relationship in developing economies: Evidence from a semiparametric panel model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 125(1), pages 93-96.
    8. Bick, Alexander, 2010. "Threshold effects of inflation on economic growth in developing countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 126-129, August.
    9. Kalaitzidakis, Pantelis & Mamuneas, Theofanis P. & Savvides, Andreas & Stengos, Thanasis, 2001. "Measures of Human Capital and Nonlinearities in Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 229-254, September.
    10. Stephanie Kremer & Alexander Bick & Dieter Nautz, 2013. "Inflation and growth: new evidence from a dynamic panel threshold analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 861-878, April.
    11. Andreas Savvides & Theofanis P. Mamuneas & Thanasis Stengos, 2006. "Economic development and the return to human capital: a smooth coefficient semiparametric approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 111-132.
    12. Henderson, Daniel J. & Papageorgiou, Chris & Parmeter, Christopher F., 2013. "Who benefits from financial development? New methods, new evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 47-67.
    13. Bruno, Michael & Easterly, William, 1998. "Inflation crises and long-run growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 3-26, February.
    14. Everaert, Gerdie & Pozzi, Lorenzo, 2007. "Bootstrap-based bias correction for dynamic panels," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1160-1184, April.
    15. ., 2014. "Education," Chapters, in: Common Innovation, chapter 19, pages 165-173, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    16. Su, Liangjun & Ullah, Aman, 2006. "Profile likelihood estimation of partially linear panel data models with fixed effects," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 75-81, July.
    17. Liu, Zhenjuan & Stengos, Thanasis, 1999. "Non-linearities in Cross-Country Growth Regressions: A Semiparametric Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 527-538, Sept.-Oct.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Baglan, Deniz & Yoldas, Emre, 2014. "Non-linearity in the inflation–growth relationship in developing economies: Evidence from a semiparametric panel model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 125(1), pages 93-96.
    2. Thanh, Su Dinh, 2015. "Threshold effects of infl ation on growth in the ASEAN-5 countries: A Panel Smooth Transition Regression approach," Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, Universidad ESAN, vol. 20(38), pages 41-48.
    3. Barrera, Carlos, 2014. "La relación entre los ciclos discretos en la inflación y el crecimiento: Perú 1993 - 2012," Working Papers 2014-024, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    4. Christoph S. Weber, 2018. "Central bank transparency and inflation (volatility) – new evidence," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 21-67, January.
    5. He, Qichun & Zhang, Zhixiang, 2019. "Inflation and Growth: An Inverted-U Relationship," MPRA Paper 97092, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Shagas, Natalia (Шагас, Наталья) & Bojechkova, A.V. (Божечкова, А.В.) & Perevyshin, Y.N. (Перевышин, Ю.Н.) & Perevyshina, E.A. (Перевышина, Е.А.), 2016. "Modeling of State Influence on the Processes of Economic Growth [Моделирование Воздействия Государства На Процессы Экономического Роста]," Working Papers 2132, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    7. Yingtao Wu & Maogang Tang & Zhonghao Zhang & Baijun Wu, 2019. "Whether Urban Development and Ecological Protection Can Achieve a Win-Win Situation—The Nonlinear Relationship between Urbanization and Ecosystem Service Value in China," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(12), pages 1-1, June.
    8. Tomáš Urbanovský, 2017. "Granger Causalities Between Interest Rate, Price Level, Money Supply and Real Gdp in the Czech Republic," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 65(2), pages 745-757.
    9. Celil AYDIN, 2017. "The Inflation-Growth Nexus: A Dynamic Panel Threshold Analysis For D-8 Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 134-151, December.
    10. Polemis, Michael L. & Stengos, Thanasis, 2015. "Does market structure affect labour productivity and wages? Evidence from a smooth coefficient semiparametric panel model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 182-186.
    11. Polterovich, V. & Popov, V., 2016. "Exchange Rate, Inflation and Industrial Policy," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 29(1), pages 192-198.
    12. Tang, Maogang & Li, Xiuzhen & Zhang, Yun & Wu, Yingtao & Wu, Baijun, 2020. "From command-and-control to market-based environmental policies: Optimal transition timing and China’s heterogeneous environmental effectiveness," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 1-10.
    13. Alexander William Salter & Thomas L. Hogan, 2019. "Expectations and NGDP Targeting: Supply-Side Problems with Demand-Side Policy," Journal of Private Enterprise, The Association of Private Enterprise Education, vol. 34(Fall 2019), pages 89-106.
    14. Thomas L. Hogan & William J. Luther, 2020. "Suboptimal Equilibria from Nominal GDP Targeting," Journal of Private Enterprise, The Association of Private Enterprise Education, vol. 35(Summer 20), pages 61-76.
    15. Thouraya Boujelbène Dammak & Kamel Helali, 2017. "Threshold Effects on the Relationship Between Inflation Rate and Economic Growth in Tunisia," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 310-325, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vinayagathasan, Thanabalasingam, 2013. "Inflation and economic growth: A dynamic panel threshold analysis for Asian economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 31-41.
    2. Kottaridi, Constantina & Stengos, Thanasis, 2010. "Foreign direct investment, human capital and non-linearities in economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 858-871, September.
    3. Daniel J. Henderson, 2010. "A test for multimodality of regression derivatives with application to nonparametric growth regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(3), pages 458-480.
    4. Andros Kourtellos & Ioanna Stylianou & Chih Tan, 2015. "Robust multiple regimes in growth volatility," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 461-491, February.
    5. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Slesman, Ly & Wohar, Mark E., 2016. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty, and economic growth in emerging and developing countries: Panel data evidence," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 638-657.
    6. Mothuti Gosego & Phiri Andrew, 2018. "Inflation-Growth Nexus in Botswana: Can Lower Inflation Really Spur Growth in the Country?," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 18(4), pages 1-11, December.
    7. Michael S. Delgado & Daniel J. Henderson & Christopher F. Parmeter, 2014. "Does Education Matter for Economic Growth?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(3), pages 334-359, June.
    8. Mavikela Nomahlubi & Mhaka Simba & Phiri Andrew, 2019. "The Inflation-Growth Relationship in SSA Inflation-Targeting Countries," Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica, Sciendo, vol. 64(2), pages 84-102, August.
    9. Waseem Khadim & Saddam Ilyas & Bilal Mehmood, 2016. "Of Inflation and Growth Nexus in BRIMC Economies," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 4(1), pages 32-45, January.
    10. Haupt, Harry & Schnurbus, Joachim & Semmler, Willi, 2018. "Estimation of grouped, time-varying convergence in economic growth," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 8(C), pages 141-158.
    11. Ndoricimpa, Arcade & Osoro, Nehemiah & Kidane, Asmerom, 2016. "Threshold effects of inflation on economic growth in selected African regional economic communities: Evidence from a dynamic panel threshold modeling," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 41, pages 5-23.
    12. Celil AYDIN, 2017. "The Inflation-Growth Nexus: A Dynamic Panel Threshold Analysis For D-8 Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 134-151, December.
    13. Mekki Hamdaoui & Samir Maktouf, 2019. "Overall effects of financial liberalization: financial crisis versus economic growth," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(4), pages 568-595, July.
    14. Agiropoulos, Charalampos & Karkalakos, Sotiris & Polemis, Michael, 2019. "Revisiting the finance-growth nexus: A socioeconomic approach," MPRA Paper 95209, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Stephanie Kremer & Alexander Bick & Dieter Nautz, 2013. "Inflation and growth: new evidence from a dynamic panel threshold analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 861-878, April.
    16. Ndoricimpa Arcade, 2017. "Working Paper 249 - Threshold Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth in Africa: Evidence from a Dynamic Panel Threshold Regression," Working Paper Series 2359, African Development Bank.
    17. Khoza, Keorapetse & Thebe, Relebogile & Phiri, Andrew, 2016. "Nonlinear impact of inflation on economic growth in South Africa: A smooth transition regression (STR) analysis," MPRA Paper 73840, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Arcade Ndoricimpa, 2017. "Threshold Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth: Is Africa Different?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 599-620, October.
    19. Ketteni, Elena & Kottaridi, Constantina, 2019. "The impact of regulations on the FDI-growth nexus within the institution-based view: A nonlinear specification with varying coefficients," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 415-427.
    20. Azomahou, Theophile & Diene, Mbaye, 2012. "Income polarization and innovation: Evidence from African economies," MERIT Working Papers 2012-048, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; economic growth; semiparametric panel data model; series estimation; bootstrap;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2014-51. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.