IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolet/v125y2014i1p93-96.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Non-linearity in the inflation–growth relationship in developing economies: Evidence from a semiparametric panel model

Author

Listed:
  • Baglan, Deniz
  • Yoldas, Emre

Abstract

Using data on developing economies, we estimate a flexible semiparametric panel data model that incorporates potentially nonlinear effects of inflation on economic growth. We find that inflation is associated with significantly lower growth only after it reaches about 12 percent, which is notably lower than the comparable estimate obtained from a threshold model. Our results also suggest that models with restrictive functional form assumptions tend to underestimate marginal effects of inflation on economic growth. We also document significant variation in the effect of inflation on growth across countries and over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Baglan, Deniz & Yoldas, Emre, 2014. "Non-linearity in the inflation–growth relationship in developing economies: Evidence from a semiparametric panel model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 125(1), pages 93-96.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:125:y:2014:i:1:p:93-96
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2014.08.015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016517651400305X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Durlauf, Steven N. & Kourtellos, Andros & Minkin, Artur, 2001. "The local Solow growth model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 928-940, May.
    2. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    3. Badi H. Baltagi & Dong Li, 2002. "Series Estimation of Partially Linear Panel Data Models with Fixed Effects," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 3(1), pages 103-116, May.
    4. Andreas Savvides & Theofanis P. Mamuneas & Thanasis Stengos, 2006. "Economic development and the return to human capital: a smooth coefficient semiparametric approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 111-132.
    5. Henderson, Daniel J. & Papageorgiou, Chris & Parmeter, Christopher F., 2013. "Who benefits from financial development? New methods, new evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 47-67.
    6. Stephanie Kremer & Alexander Bick & Dieter Nautz, 2013. "Inflation and growth: new evidence from a dynamic panel threshold analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 861-878, April.
    7. Atish Ghosh & Steven Phillips, 1998. "Warning: Inflation May Be Harmful to Your Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(4), pages 672-710, December.
    8. StevenN. Durlauf & Andros Kourtellos & ChihMing Tan, 2008. "Are Any Growth Theories Robust?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(527), pages 329-346, March.
    9. Bruno, Michael & Easterly, William, 1998. "Inflation crises and long-run growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 3-26, February.
    10. Michael S. Delgado & Daniel J. Henderson & Christopher F. Parmeter, 2014. "Does Education Matter for Economic Growth?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(3), pages 334-359, June.
    11. Baglan, Deniz & Yoldas, Emre, 2014. "Non-linearity in the inflation–growth relationship in developing economies: Evidence from a semiparametric panel model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 125(1), pages 93-96.
    12. Everaert, Gerdie & Pozzi, Lorenzo, 2007. "Bootstrap-based bias correction for dynamic panels," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1160-1184, April.
    13. Bick, Alexander, 2010. "Threshold effects of inflation on economic growth in developing countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 126-129, August.
    14. ., 2014. "Education," Chapters, in: Common Innovation, chapter 19, pages 165-173, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    15. Kalaitzidakis, Pantelis & Mamuneas, Theofanis P. & Savvides, Andreas & Stengos, Thanasis, 2001. "Measures of Human Capital and Nonlinearities in Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 229-254, September.
    16. Su, Liangjun & Ullah, Aman, 2006. "Profile likelihood estimation of partially linear panel data models with fixed effects," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 75-81, July.
    17. Baglan, Deniz & Yoldas, Emre, 2014. "Non-linearity in the inflation–growth relationship in developing economies: Evidence from a semiparametric panel model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 125(1), pages 93-96.
    18. Liu, Zhenjuan & Stengos, Thanasis, 1999. "Non-linearities in Cross-Country Growth Regressions: A Semiparametric Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 527-538, Sept.-Oct.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Baglan, Deniz & Yoldas, Emre, 2014. "Non-linearity in the inflation–growth relationship in developing economies: Evidence from a semiparametric panel model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 125(1), pages 93-96.
    2. Baglan, Deniz & Yoldas, Emre, 2014. "Non-linearity in the inflation–growth relationship in developing economies: Evidence from a semiparametric panel model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 125(1), pages 93-96.
    3. Thanh, Su Dinh, 2015. "Threshold effects of infl ation on growth in the ASEAN-5 countries: A Panel Smooth Transition Regression approach," Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, Universidad ESAN, vol. 20(38), pages 41-48.
    4. Barrera, Carlos, 2014. "La relación entre los ciclos discretos en la inflación y el crecimiento: Perú 1993 - 2012," Working Papers 2014-024, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    5. Christoph S. Weber, 2018. "Central bank transparency and inflation (volatility) – new evidence," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 21-67, January.
    6. He, Qichun & Zhang, Zhixiang, 2019. "Inflation and Growth: An Inverted-U Relationship," MPRA Paper 97092, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Shagas, Natalia (Шагас, Наталья) & Bojechkova, A.V. (Божечкова, А.В.) & Perevyshin, Y.N. (Перевышин, Ю.Н.) & Perevyshina, E.A. (Перевышина, Е.А.), 2016. "Modeling of State Influence on the Processes of Economic Growth [Моделирование Воздействия Государства На Процессы Экономического Роста]," Working Papers 2132, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    8. Yingtao Wu & Maogang Tang & Zhonghao Zhang & Baijun Wu, 2019. "Whether Urban Development and Ecological Protection Can Achieve a Win-Win Situation—The Nonlinear Relationship between Urbanization and Ecosystem Service Value in China," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(12), pages 1-1, June.
    9. Tomáš Urbanovský, 2017. "Granger Causalities Between Interest Rate, Price Level, Money Supply and Real Gdp in the Czech Republic," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 65(2), pages 745-757.
    10. Celil AYDIN, 2017. "The Inflation-Growth Nexus: A Dynamic Panel Threshold Analysis For D-8 Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 134-151, December.
    11. Polemis, Michael L. & Stengos, Thanasis, 2015. "Does market structure affect labour productivity and wages? Evidence from a smooth coefficient semiparametric panel model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 182-186.
    12. Polterovich, V. & Popov, V., 2016. "Exchange Rate, Inflation and Industrial Policy," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 29(1), pages 192-198.
    13. Tang, Maogang & Li, Xiuzhen & Zhang, Yun & Wu, Yingtao & Wu, Baijun, 2020. "From command-and-control to market-based environmental policies: Optimal transition timing and China’s heterogeneous environmental effectiveness," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 1-10.
    14. Alexander William Salter & Thomas L. Hogan, 2019. "Expectations and NGDP Targeting: Supply-Side Problems with Demand-Side Policy," Journal of Private Enterprise, The Association of Private Enterprise Education, vol. 34(Fall 2019), pages 89-106.
    15. Thomas L. Hogan & William J. Luther, 2020. "Suboptimal Equilibria from Nominal GDP Targeting," Journal of Private Enterprise, The Association of Private Enterprise Education, vol. 35(Summer 20), pages 61-76.
    16. Thouraya Boujelbène Dammak & Kamel Helali, 2017. "Threshold Effects on the Relationship Between Inflation Rate and Economic Growth in Tunisia," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 310-325, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Economic growth; Semiparametric panel data model; Series estimation; Bootstrap;

    JEL classification:

    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:125:y:2014:i:1:p:93-96. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Haili He). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.