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A smooth ride: Terms of trade, volatility and GDP growth

  • Grimes, Arthur

International evidence indicates that higher terms of trade levels and lower terms of trade volatility contribute to enhanced growth outcomes, especially for commodity-export and developing countries. New Zealand's terms of trade have been high and remarkably stable since the early 1990s compared with past experience. We analyse the proximate reasons behind these high, stable terms of trade and then examine whether this terms of trade behaviour explains growth outcomes since 1960. Attention is paid to growth outcomes over a variety of economic regimes. Approximately half the variance in annual GDP growth over 45 years can be explained by the level and volatility of the terms of trade. The relationship is robust across four economic regimes.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Asian Economics.

Volume (Year): 17 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 583-600

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Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:17:y:2006:i:4:p:583-600
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/asieco

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  1. Robert A. Buckle & David Haugh & Peter Thomson, 2004. "Markov Switching Models for GDP Growth in a Small Open Economy: The New Zealand Experience," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2004(2), pages 227-257.
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