IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nzb/nzbbul/jun201404.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How volatile are New Zealand’s terms of trade? An international comparison

Author

Abstract

The terms of trade are a key influence on New Zealand’s economy, and have often been quite volatile. This article compares New Zealand’s experience with those of a group of other advanced economies. Cycles in New Zealand’s terms of trade have been relatively large, but similar to those in the other advanced commodity exporting countries, such as Australia and Norway. Volatile export prices have typically been the main factor in the variability of commodity-exporting countries’ terms of trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Daan Steenkamp, 2014. "How volatile are New Zealand’s terms of trade? An international comparison," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 77, pages 3-14, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbbul:jun2014:04
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/ReserveBank/Files/Publications/Bulletins/2014/2014jun77-2steenkamp.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cashin, Paul & Cespedes, Luis F. & Sahay, Ratna, 2004. "Commodity currencies and the real exchange rate," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 239-268, October.
    2. Daan Steenkamp, 2014. "Structural adjustment in New Zealand since the commodity boom," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2014/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    3. Grimes, Arthur, 2006. "A smooth ride: Terms of trade, volatility and GDP growth," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 583-600, October.
    4. Grilli, Enzo R & Yang, Maw Cheng, 1988. "Primary Commodity Prices, Manufactured Goods Prices, and the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries: What the Long Run Shows," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 2(1), pages 1-47, January.
    5. Willy Chetwin & Tim Ng & Daan Steenkamp, 2013. "New Zealand’s short- and medium-term real exchange rate volatility: drivers and policy implications," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2013/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    6. Gianluca Benigno & Christoph Thoenissen, 2003. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Supply-Side Performance," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(486), pages 103-124, March.
    7. Miles Parker & Benjamin Wong, 2014. "Exchange rate and commodity price pass‐through in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2014/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    8. Stephan Pfaffenzeller & Paul Newbold & Anthony Rayner, 2007. "A Short Note on Updating the Grilli and Yang Commodity Price Index," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 21(1), pages 151-163.
    9. Tony Makin, 1992. "Exportables, Importables And The Terms Of Trade," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 11(1), pages 42-52, March.
    10. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters, in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Richard Sullivan, 2013. "Exchange rate fluctuations: how has the regime mattered?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 76, pages 26-34, June.
    12. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
    13. Gustavo Adler & Mr. Nicolas E Magud, 2013. "Four Decades of Terms-of-Trade Booms: Saving-Investment Patterns and a New Metric of Income Windfall," IMF Working Papers 2013/103, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, March.
    15. Mr. Kenneth Rogoff & Mr. Yu-chin Chen, 2002. "Commodity Currencies and Empirical Exchange Rate Puzzles," IMF Working Papers 2002/027, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ross Kendall, 2014. "Economic linkages between New Zealand and China," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2014/06, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    2. Geoff Lewis & Sally Garden & Hamed Shafiee & Geoff Simmons & Jo Smith, 2021. "Frontier firms: Four industry case studies," Working Papers 2021/02, New Zealand Productivity Commission.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mei-Hsiu Chen & Kenneth W Clements & Grace Gao, 2013. "Three Facts About World Metal Prices," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 13-01, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    2. Cashin, Paul & McDermott, C. John & Scott, Alasdair, 2002. "Booms and slumps in world commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 277-296, October.
    3. Ghoshray, Atanu, 2019. "Do international primary commodity prices exhibit asymmetric adjustment?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 40-50.
    4. Winkelried, Diego, 2016. "Piecewise linear trends and cycles in primary commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 196-213.
    5. Aastveit, Knut Are & Jore, Anne Sofie & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2016. "Identification and real-time forecasting of Norwegian business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 283-292.
    6. Agnello, Luca & Nerlich, Carolin, 2012. "On the severity of economic downturns: Lessons from cross-country evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 149-155.
    7. Ghoshray, Atanu, 2021. "Are coffee farmers worse off in the long run?," 95th Annual Conference, March 29-30, 2021, Warwick, UK (Hybrid) 311084, Agricultural Economics Society - AES.
    8. Theobald, Thomas, 2013. "Markov Switching with Endogenous Number of Regimes and Leading Indicators in a Real-Time Business Cycle Forecast," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79911, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Sergey V. Smirnov & Nikolay V. Kondrashov & Anna V. Petronevich, 2017. "Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(1), pages 53-73, May.
    10. Grigoraş, Veaceslav & Stanciu, Irina Eusignia, 2016. "New evidence on the (de)synchronisation of business cycles: Reshaping the European business cycle," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 27-52.
    11. Vitor Castro, 2015. "The Portuguese business cycle: chronology and duration dependence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 325-342, August.
    12. Rachel Male, 2010. "Developing Country Business Cycles: Characterising the Cycle," Working Papers 663, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    13. Avouyi-Dovi, S. & Matheron, J., 2003. "Interactions between business cycles, stock market cycles and interest rates: the stylised facts," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 3, pages 80-99, November.
    14. Yongsung Chang & Sunoong Hwang, 2015. "Asymmetric Phase Shifts in U.S. Industrial Production Cycles," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(1), pages 116-133, March.
    15. Fatma Erdem & Erdal Özmen, 2015. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(5), pages 1041-1058, November.
    16. Calderón, César & Fuentes, J. Rodrigo, 2014. "Have business cycles changed over the last two decades? An empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 98-123.
    17. Hall, Viv B & Thomson, Peter, 2022. "A boosted HP filter for business cycle analysis: evidence from New Zealand’s small open economy," Working Paper Series 9473, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    18. Luis Eduardo Arango & Ana María Ríos, 2015. "Duración del desempleo en Colombia: género, intensidad de búsqueda y anuncios de vacantes," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 012528, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    19. German Forero-Laverde, 2016. "Are All Booms and Busts Created Equal? A New Methodology for Understanding Bull and Bear Stock Markets," UB School of Economics Working Papers 2016/339, University of Barcelona School of Economics.
    20. Ana Beatriz Galvão & Amit Kara, 2020. "The Impact of GDP Data Revisions on Identifying and Predicting UK Recessions," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2020-12, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbbul:jun2014:04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Knowledge Centre (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rbngvnz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.