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The "spurious regression problem" in the classical regression model framework

Author

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  • Gueorgui I. Kolev

    () (EDHEC Business School)

Abstract

I analyse the "spurious regression problem" from the Classical Regression Model (CRM) point of view. Simulations show that the autocorrelation corrections suggested by the CRM, e.g., feasible generalised least squares, solve the problem. Estimators are unbiased, consistent, efficient and deliver correctly sized tests. Conversely, first differencing the data results in inefficiencies when the autoregressive parameter in the error process is less than one. I offer practical recommendations for handling cases suspected to be in the "spurious regression" class.

Suggested Citation

  • Gueorgui I. Kolev, 2011. "The "spurious regression problem" in the classical regression model framework," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(1), pages 925-937.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-10-00191
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    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2011/Volume31/EB-11-V31-I1-P88.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. McCallum, Bennett T., 2010. "Is the spurious regression problem spurious?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 107(3), pages 321-323, June.
    2. Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel, 2008. "Spurious Regression," MPRA Paper 59008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
    4. Sun, Yixiao, 2004. "A CONVERGENT t-STATISTIC IN SPURIOUS REGRESSIONS," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(05), pages 943-962, October.
    5. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    6. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 1991. "On the application of robust, regression- based diagnostics to models of conditional means and conditional variances," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 5-46, January.
    7. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària & J. Eduardo Vera-Valdés & Alejandra I. Martínez-Olmos, 2016. "A comment on ‘resolving spurious regressions and serially correlated errors’," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1289-1298, November.
    2. Frédéric Branger, Philippe Quirion, Julien Chevallier, 2017. "Carbon Leakage and Competitiveness of Cement and Steel Industries Under the EU ETS: Much Ado About Nothing," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    spurious regression; classical regression model; generalised least squares; autocorrelation corrections;

    JEL classification:

    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables

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