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The Cyclical Component in Brazilian GDP

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  • Cribari-Neto, Francisco

Abstract

This paper presents an estimate of the cyclical component in Brazilian GDP obtained by allowing the trend component to follow a stochastic process. It also compares this estimate with a more naive one, obtained by forcing the trend to be deterministic. The main result this paper conveys is that the cyclical component in Brazilian GDP is very small, and hence almost all output fluctuations have been caused by long-run (real) factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Cribari-Neto, Francisco, 1993. "The Cyclical Component in Brazilian GDP," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 13(1), April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sbe:breart:v:13:y:1993:i:1:a:2984
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    2. Jorge Eduardo Carrera & Mariano Féliz & Demian Tupac Panigo, 2000. "Raíces unitarias y ciclos en las principales variables macroeconómicas de argentina," IIE, Working Papers 020, IIE, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    3. Jorge Eduardo Carrera & Mariano Féliz & Demian Tupac Panigo, 2000. "Raíces unitarias y ciclos en las principales variables macroeconómicas de argentina," Department of Economics, Working Papers 020, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    4. Bastourre, Diego & Carrera, Jorge & Féliz, Mariano & Panigo, Demian, 2003. "Dollarization and real volatility," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 0311, CEPREMAP.
    5. Jorge Eduardo Carrera & Mariano Feliz & Demian Panigo & Marcelo Saavedra, 2001. "Dollarization as an Asymmetric Monetary Union. The Case of Argentina," Anais do XXIX Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 29th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 043, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    6. Marilza Pereira Valentine & Erik Alencar de Figueiredo & Sinézio Fernades Maia & Adriano Nascimento da Paixão, 2003. "Impactos da Política Monetária Sobre os Níveis de Emprego no Brasil Pós-Plano Real: uma Abordagem Quantitativa," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31st Brazilian Economics Meeting] f07, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].

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