IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/jaecon/43989.html

Testing the Order of Integration with Low Power Tests. An Application to Argentine Macro-variables

Author

Listed:
  • Carrera, Jorge Eduardo
  • Feliz, Mariano
  • Panigo, Demian

Abstract

The low power of available econometric tests is an important problem in applied research on unit roots and related issues. Based on the principle of methodological triangulation, the problem should be analyzed from different points of view in order to increase the validity of the results. Following this approach a strategy to test the order of integration in time series is presented using a sequence of eleven consolidated tests. In this way it is possible to determine the persistence of shocks, to specify the best strategy for trend-cycle decomposition and to obtain additional information useful for public policies. As an application of the methodology, the integration properties in the main 14 Argentine macroeconomic variables are studied. A classification of them in four homogenous groups according to their order of integration is obtained.

Suggested Citation

  • Carrera, Jorge Eduardo & Feliz, Mariano & Panigo, Demian, 2003. "Testing the Order of Integration with Low Power Tests. An Application to Argentine Macro-variables," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 6(2), pages 1-26, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:jaecon:43989
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.43989
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/43989/files/carrera.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.43989?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
    2. Perron, P, 1993. "Erratum [The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock and the Unit Root Hypothesis]," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 248-249, January.
    3. Nelson, Charles R & Kang, Heejoon, 1981. "Spurious Periodicity in Inappropriately Detrended Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 741-751, May.
    4. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    5. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    6. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-287, July.
    7. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
    8. Plosser, Charles I. & Schwert*, G. William, 1978. "Money, income, and sunspots: Measuring economic relationships and the effects of differencing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 637-660, November.
    9. Pierre Perron, 1994. "Trend, Unit Root and Structural Change in Macroeconomic Time Series," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: B. Bhaskara Rao (ed.), Cointegration, chapter 4, pages 113-146, Palgrave Macmillan.
    10. Cochrane, John H., 1991. "A critique of the application of unit root tests," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 275-284, April.
    11. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    12. Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Modeling long-run behavior with the fractional ARIMA model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 277-302, April.
    13. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    14. C. W. J. Granger & Roselyne Joyeux, 1980. "An Introduction To Long‐Memory Time Series Models And Fractional Differencing," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, January.
    15. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
    16. Wojciech W. Charemza & Derek F. Deadman, 1997. "New Directions In Econometric Practice, Second Edition," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1139.
    17. Cribari-Neto, Francisco, 1993. "The Cyclical Component in Brazilian GDP," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 13(1), April.
    18. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
    19. Canova, Fabio, 1999. "Does Detrending Matter for the Determination of the Reference Cycle and the Selection of Turning Points?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 126-150, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Panigo, Demian & Féliz, Mariano & Perez, Pablo, 2004. "Macro and microeconomic persistence in regional unemployment. The case of Argentina," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 0403, CEPREMAP.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jorge Eduardo Carrera & Mariano Féliz & Demian Tupac Panigo, 2000. "Raíces unitarias y ciclos en las principales variables macroeconómicas de argentina," Department of Economics, Working Papers 020, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    2. Murray, Christian J. & Nelson, Charles R., 2000. "The uncertain trend in U.S. GDP," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 79-95, August.
    3. Cribari-Neto, Francisco, 1996. "On time series econometrics," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 37-60.
    4. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. D. Ventosa-Santaulària, 2009. "Spurious Regression," Journal of Probability and Statistics, Hindawi, vol. 2009, pages 1-27, August.
    6. Jorge Eduardo Carrera & Mariano Feliz & Demian Panigo & Marcelo Saavedra, 2001. "Dollarization as an Asymmetric Monetary Union. The Case of Argentina," Anais do XXIX Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 29th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 043, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    7. Javier León & Carlos Oliva, 1992. "Componente no Estacionario y la Paridad del Poder de Compra en 12 Países Latinoamericanos," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 29(88), pages 481-504.
    8. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, January.
    9. Perron, Pierre & Wada, Tatsuma, 2016. "Measuring business cycles with structural breaks and outliers: Applications to international data," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 281-303.
    10. Tatsuma Wada & Pierre Perron, 2005. "Trend and Cycles: A New Approach and Explanations of Some Old Puzzles," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 252, Society for Computational Economics.
    11. Tatsuma Wada & Pierre Perron, 2006. "State Space Model with Mixtures of Normals: Specifications and Applications to International Data," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2006-029, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    12. Pierre Perron, 1992. "Racines unitaires en macroéconomie : le cas d’une variable," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 68(1), pages 325-356.
    13. Claude Diebolt, 2021. "Trend, Cycles and Chance," Working Papers of BETA 2021-14, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    14. Ai Deng & Pierre Perron, 2006. "A comparison of alternative asymptotic frameworks to analyse a structural change in a linear time trend," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 9(3), pages 423-447, November.
    15. Marilza Pereira Valentine & Erik Alencar de Figueiredo & Sinézio Fernades Maia & Adriano Nascimento da Paixão, 2003. "Impactos da Política Monetária Sobre os Níveis de Emprego no Brasil Pós-Plano Real: uma Abordagem Quantitativa," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31st Brazilian Economics Meeting] f07, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    16. Giannellis, Nikolaos & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P., 2009. "Testing for efficiency in selected developing foreign exchange markets: An equilibrium-based approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 155-166, January.
    17. Niels Haldrup & Robinson Kruse & Timo Teräsvirta & Rasmus T. Varneskov, 2013. "Unit roots, non-linearities and structural breaks," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 4, pages 61-94, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Panigo, Demian & Féliz, Mariano & Perez, Pablo, 2004. "Macro and microeconomic persistence in regional unemployment. The case of Argentina," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 0403, CEPREMAP.
    19. António Portugal Duarte & João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte, 2009. "Exchange Rate Mean Reversion within a Target Zone: Evidence from a Country on the Periphery of the ERM," GEMF Working Papers 2009-15, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    20. Pedersen, Torben Mark & Elmer, Anne Marie, 2003. "International evidence on the connection between business cycles and economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 255-275, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:jaecon:43989. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cemaaar.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.