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Bayesian Model Averaging and Identification of Structural Breaks in Time Series

Author

Listed:
  • Fraser, Iain
  • Balcombe, Kelvin
  • Sharma, Abhijit

Abstract

Bayesian model averaging is used for testing for multiple break points in uni- variate series using conjugate normal-gamma priors. This approach can test for the number of structural breaks and produce posterior probabilities for a break at each point in time. Results are averaged over speciÖcations including: station- ary; stationary around trend; and, unit root models, each containing di§ erent types and numbers of breaks and di§ erent lag lengths. The procedures are used to test for structural breaks on 14 annual macroeconomic series and 11 natural resource price series. The results indicate that there are structural breaks in al l of the natural resource series and most of the macroeconomic series. Many of the series had multiple breaks. Our Öndings regarding the existence of unit roots, having al lowed for structural breaks in the data, are largely consistent with previous work.

Suggested Citation

  • Fraser, Iain & Balcombe, Kelvin & Sharma, Abhijit, 2007. "Bayesian Model Averaging and Identification of Structural Breaks in Time Series," MPRA Paper 8676, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:8676
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8676/1/MPRA_paper_8676.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bai, Jushan, 1999. "Likelihood ratio tests for multiple structural changes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 299-323, August.
    2. Bauwens, Luc & Lubrano, Michel & Richard, Jean-Francois, 2000. "Bayesian Inference in Dynamic Econometric Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773139.
    3. Ahrens, W. Ashley & Sharma, Vijaya R., 1997. "Trends in Natural Resource Commodity Prices: Deterministic or Stochastic?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 59-74, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian Model Averaging; Structural Breaks; Unit Root; Macro- economic Data; Natural Resource data;

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General

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