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Bayesian Model Averaging and Identification of Structural Breaks in Time Series

  • Fraser, Iain
  • Balcombe, Kelvin
  • Sharma, Abhijit

Bayesian model averaging is used for testing for multiple break points in uni- variate series using conjugate normal-gamma priors. This approach can test for the number of structural breaks and produce posterior probabilities for a break at each point in time. Results are averaged over speciÖcations including: station- ary; stationary around trend; and, unit root models, each containing di§ erent types and numbers of breaks and di§ erent lag lengths. The procedures are used to test for structural breaks on 14 annual macroeconomic series and 11 natural resource price series. The results indicate that there are structural breaks in al l of the natural resource series and most of the macroeconomic series. Many of the series had multiple breaks. Our Öndings regarding the existence of unit roots, having al lowed for structural breaks in the data, are largely consistent with previous work.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8676/1/MPRA_paper_8676.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 8676.

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Date of creation: Oct 2007
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:8676
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  1. Ahrens, W. Ashley & Sharma, Vijaya R., 1997. "Trends in Natural Resource Commodity Prices: Deterministic or Stochastic?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 59-74, May.
  2. Bauwens, Luc & Lubrano, Michel & Richard, Jean-Francois, 2000. "Bayesian Inference in Dynamic Econometric Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773139, March.
  3. Bai, Jushan, 1999. "Likelihood ratio tests for multiple structural changes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 299-323, August.
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