Bayesian Evidence on the Structure of Unemployment
This paper presents a Bayesian assessment of the likelihood of unit roots in the unemployment rates of 16 OECD countries. Bayesian techniques for detecting multiple structural breaks in time series have recently been developed by Wang and Zivot (2000). I apply these tests to a data set recently analyzed by Papell et al (2000). I also treat the number of structural breaks as an additional parameter to be estimated. I fin virtually no support for unit root hysteresis in OECD unemployment rates; this result is very robust to the choice of prior.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2003|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne, Victoria 3010 Australia|
Phone: +61 3 8344 2100
Fax: +61 3 8344 2111
Web page: http://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Han C. & Carlin B. P., 2001. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods for Computing Bayes Factors: A Comparative Review," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 1122-1132, September.
- Wang, Jiahui & Zivot, Eric, 2000. "A Bayesian Time Series Model of Multiple Structural Changes in Level, Trend, and Variance," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(3), pages 374-386, July.
- Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995.
"Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes,"
Cahiers de recherche
9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
- Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Lubrano, Michel, 1995. "Testing for unit roots in a Bayesian framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 81-109, September.
- John F. Geweke, 1998.
"Using simulation methods for Bayesian econometric models: inference, development, and communication,"
249, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- John Geweke, 1999. "Using simulation methods for bayesian econometric models: inference, development,and communication," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-73.
- Berger, James O. & Yang, Ruo-Yong, 1994. "Noninformative Priors and Bayesian Testing for the AR(1) Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 461-482, August.
- Sims, Christopher A & Uhlig, Harald, 1991.
"Understanding Unit Rooters: A Helicopter Tour,"
Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1591-1599, November.
- Christopher A. Sims & Harald Uhlig, 1988. "Understanding unit rooters: a helicopter tour," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 4, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- repec:cup:etheor:v:10:y:1994:i:3-4:p:645-71 is not listed on IDEAS
- Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992.
"Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-320, July.
- Vogelsang, T.I. & Perron, P., 1991. "Nonstationary and Level Shifts With An Application To Purchasing Power Parity," Papers 359, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Bauwens, Luc & Lubrano, Michel & Richard, Jean-Francois, 2000. "Bayesian Inference in Dynamic Econometric Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773139.
- David H. Papell & Christian J. Murray & Hala Ghiblawi, 2000. "The Structure of Unemployment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 309-315, May.
- John Geweke, 1999. "Using Simulation Methods for Bayesian Econometric Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 832, Society for Computational Economics.
- Uhlig, Harald, 1994. "What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots: A Bayesian Perspective," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 645-671, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2003n03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Abbey Treloar)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.