IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fgv/eesptd/310.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Agregação temporal e não-linearidade afetam os testes da paridade do poder de compra: evidência a partir de dados brasileiros

Author

Listed:
  • Simões, Oscar Rodrigues
  • Marçal, Emerson Fernandes

Abstract

Este artigo analisa as séries de câmbio real brasileira calculada a partir de índices de preços ao consumidor para o Brasil e 21 parceiros comerciais no período de 1957 a 2010. O primeiro objetivo deste trabalho será o de avaliar a validade da Paridade do Poder de Compra (PPC) entre Brasil e seus parceiros comerciais através de diversos testes de raiz unitária (ADF, PP, KPSS, Kapetanios et al. (2003) e Bierens (1997)). O segundo objetivo consiste em investigar a hipótese de Taylor (2001) de que a meia-vida é superestimada quando os dados das séries são construídos a partir de um mecanismo de agregação temporal pela média e cujo processo gerador dos dados é linear. O trabalho apresenta elementos para confirmar o argumento de Taylor (2001) de que agregação temporal causa sérias distorções na estimação da meia-vida dos choques da PPC. Os resultados dos testes de raiz unitária lineares (PP e ADF) são desfavoráveis a PPC. Já o teste KPSS, de Kapetanios et al. (2003) e de Bierens (1997) aplicados a base sem agregação temporal sugerem um cenário bem mais favorável a PPC.

Suggested Citation

  • Simões, Oscar Rodrigues & Marçal, Emerson Fernandes, 2012. "Agregação temporal e não-linearidade afetam os testes da paridade do poder de compra: evidência a partir de dados brasileiros," Textos para discussão 310, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
  • Handle: RePEc:fgv:eesptd:310
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://bibliotecadigital.fgv.br/dspace/bitstream/10438/9873/1/TD%20310%20-%20Oscar%20R%20Sim%c3%b5es%20e%20Emerson%20Fernandes%20Mar%c3%a7al.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Denisard Alves & Regina Celia Cati & Vera Lucia Fava, 2001. "Purchasing power parity in Brazil: a test for fractional cointegration," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(9), pages 1175-1185.
    2. Pereira, Pedro L. Valls & Holland, Márcio, 1999. "Taxa de Câmbio Real e Paridade de Poder de Compra no Brasil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 53(3), July.
    3. Palaia, Daniel Rodolfo Antonelli & Brito, Márcio Holland de, 2010. "Paridade de poder de compra no Brasil: uma análise econométrica com quebra estrutural," Textos para discussão 228, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    4. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    5. Alan M. Taylor & Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 135-158, Fall.
    6. Giuseppe Cavaliere, 2005. "Unit Root Tests under Time-Varying Variances," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3), pages 259-292.
    7. Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688, Elsevier.
    8. Cristiano Silveira Freixo & Fernando de Holanda Barbosa, 2004. "Paridade do Poder de Compra: O Modelo de Reversão Não Linear para o Brasil," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 5(3), pages 75-116.
    9. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-320, July.
    10. Marçal, Emerson Fernandes & Pereira, Pedro Luiz Valls & Filho, Otaviano Canuto dos Santos, 2003. "Paridade do Poder de Compra: Testando Dados Brasileiros," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 57(1), January.
    11. Terra, Cristina & Vahia, Ana Lucia, 2008. "A note Purchasing Power Parity and The Choice of Price Index," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 62(1), September.
    12. Smith, A A, Jr, 1993. "Estimating Nonlinear Time-Series Models Using Simulated Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages 63-84, Suppl. De.
    13. Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David A, 1997. "Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 862-879, August.
    14. Gourieroux, C & Monfort, A & Renault, E, 1993. "Indirect Inference," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages 85-118, Suppl. De.
    15. Alan M. Taylor & Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 135-158, Fall.
    16. Ahmad, Yamin & Craighead, William D., 2011. "Temporal aggregation and purchasing power parity persistence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 817-830, September.
    17. de Jong, Robert M. & Amsler, Christine & Schmidt, Peter, 2007. "A robust version of the KPSS test based on indicators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(2), pages 311-333, April.
    18. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    19. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1985. "Purchasing Power Parity," NBER Working Papers 1591, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:66:n:3:a:6 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Marcos José Dal Bianco, 2008. "Argentinean real exchange rate 1900-2006, test purchasing power parity theory," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 35(1 Year 20), pages 33-64, June.
    3. Terra, Cristina & Valladares, Frederico, 2010. "Real exchange rate misalignments," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 119-144, January.
    4. Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2006. "Deviations from purchasing power parity under different exchange rate regimes: Do they revert and, if so, how?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 3147-3169, November.
    5. Curran, Michael & Velic, Adnan, 2019. "Real exchange rate persistence and country characteristics: A global analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 35-56.
    6. Fukuda, Takashi & Dahalan, Jauhari, 2011. "“Finance-Growth-Crisis Nexus in India: Evidence from Cointegration and Causality Assessment” - L’interazione finanza-crescita-crisi in India: evidenze da una analisi di cointegrazione e causalità," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 64(3), pages 297-328.
    7. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Hu, Yu-Hau, 2009. "New evidence on nominal exchange rate predictability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1045-1063, October.
    8. Giannellis, Nikolaos & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P., 2009. "Testing for efficiency in selected developing foreign exchange markets: An equilibrium-based approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 155-166, January.
    9. Zied Ftiti & Slim Chaouachi, 2018. "What Can We Learn About the Real Exchange Rate Behavior in the Case of a Peripheral Country?," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(3), pages 681-707, September.
    10. Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2007. "PPP over a century: cointegration and structural change," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 3(5), pages 319-325.
    11. Kenneth W. Clements & H. Y. Izan & Yihui Lan, 2009. "A Stochastic Measure of International Competitiveness," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 9(1‐2), pages 51-81, March.
    12. Fukuda, Takashi & Dahalan, Jauhari, 2011. "Finance-Growth-Crisis Nexus in India: Evidence from Cointegration and Causality Assessment," MPRA Paper 39467, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. António Afonso & Florence Huart & João Tovar Jalles & Piotr Stanek, 2019. "Assessing the sustainability of external imbalances in the European Union," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 320-348, February.
    14. Juvenal Luciana & Taylor Mark P., 2008. "Threshold Adjustment of Deviations from the Law of One Price," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 1-46, September.
    15. Georgios Chortareas & George Kapetanios, 2004. "The Yen Real Exchange Rate may be Stationary after all: Evidence from Non‐linear Unit‐root Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(1), pages 113-131, February.
    16. Su, Jen-Je & Cheung, Adrian (Wai-Kong) & Roca, Eduardo, 2014. "Does Purchasing Power Parity hold? New evidence from wild-bootstrapped nonlinear unit root tests in the presence of heteroskedasticity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 161-171.
    17. Gu, Jingping & Liang, Zhongwen, 2014. "Testing cointegration relationship in a semiparametric varying coefficient model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P1), pages 57-70.
    18. Ahmad, Yamin & Lo, Ming Chien & Mykhaylova, Olena, 2013. "Causes of nonlinearities in low-order models of the real exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 128-141.
    19. Clements, Kenneth & Lan, Yihui & Roberts, John, 2008. "Exchange-rate economics for the resources sector," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 102-117, June.
    20. Ivan Paya & David A. Peel, 2004. "Nonlinear Ppp Under The Gold Standard," Working Papers. Serie AD 2004-24, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    21. Vicente Esteve, 2004. "Política fiscal y productividad del trabajo en la economía española: un análisis de series temporales," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fgv:eesptd:310. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Núcleo de Computação da FGV EPGE). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eegvfbr.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.