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Agregação temporal e não-linearidade afetam os testes da paridade do poder de compra: evidência a partir de dados brasileiros

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  • Simões, Oscar Rodrigues
  • Marçal, Emerson Fernandes

Abstract

Este artigo analisa as séries de câmbio real brasileira calculada a partir de índices de preços ao consumidor para o Brasil e 21 parceiros comerciais no período de 1957 a 2010. O primeiro objetivo deste trabalho será o de avaliar a validade da Paridade do Poder de Compra (PPC) entre Brasil e seus parceiros comerciais através de diversos testes de raiz unitária (ADF, PP, KPSS, Kapetanios et al. (2003) e Bierens (1997)). O segundo objetivo consiste em investigar a hipótese de Taylor (2001) de que a meia-vida é superestimada quando os dados das séries são construídos a partir de um mecanismo de agregação temporal pela média e cujo processo gerador dos dados é linear. O trabalho apresenta elementos para confirmar o argumento de Taylor (2001) de que agregação temporal causa sérias distorções na estimação da meia-vida dos choques da PPC. Os resultados dos testes de raiz unitária lineares (PP e ADF) são desfavoráveis a PPC. Já o teste KPSS, de Kapetanios et al. (2003) e de Bierens (1997) aplicados a base sem agregação temporal sugerem um cenário bem mais favorável a PPC.

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  • Simões, Oscar Rodrigues & Marçal, Emerson Fernandes, 2012. "Agregação temporal e não-linearidade afetam os testes da paridade do poder de compra: evidência a partir de dados brasileiros," Textos para discussão 310, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
  • Handle: RePEc:fgv:eesptd:310
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