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Fluctuaciones cíclicas y raíces unitarias en la economía española, 1850-1990


  • Jordi Pons Novell

    (Universidad de Barcelona)

  • Andreu Sansó Rosselló

    (Universidad de Barcelona)


En este artículo se analiza el grado de persistencia de las fluctuaciones cíclicas en la economía española. En concreto se estuda si el PIB y el PIB per cápita de esta economía presentan una raiz unitaria. Con el objetivo de evitar el sesgo a aceptar raíces unitarias cuando se producen cambios en la función de tendencia, como el originado por la Guerra Civil española (1936-1939), se han aplicado diversos contrastes para endogeneizar el punto de ruptura de la función de tendencia. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que existe una importante evidencia en el sentido de que el logaritmo del PIB presenta una raiz unitaria. La principal impllicación de este resultado es que los shocks sobre el producto tienen efectos permanentes en el nivel del PIB de la economía española, aunque dicha hipótesis es más dificil de aceptar en el PIB per cápita dada la evidencia contradictoria encontrada en favor de la misma. In this article, one analyses the persistence degree of the cyclical fluctuations in the Spanish economy, Briefly, one studies wether the GDP and the GDP per capita of this economy have a unit root. In order to avoid athe bias of accepting unit roots whenever some changes in the trend function take place, like the one brought about by the Spanish Civil War. (1936-1939), one has applied different tests to endogeneize the break point of the trend function. The obtaining results show that an important evidence exists in the sense that the log of real GDP has a unit root. The main contradiction of this result is that the shocks over the product have permanent effects on the GDP level of the Spanish economy, although this hypothesis is even more difficult to accept when considering the GDP per capita given the contradictory evidence in favour of this presence.

Suggested Citation

  • Jordi Pons Novell & Andreu Sansó Rosselló, 1996. "Fluctuaciones cíclicas y raíces unitarias en la economía española, 1850-1990," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 6, pages 171-182, Diciembre.
  • Handle: RePEc:lrk:eeaart:6_3_8

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    2. Schwert, G William, 2002. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 5-17, January.
    3. Perron, Pierre, 1988. "Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series : Further evidence from a new approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 297-332.
    4. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    5. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1993. "The Uncertain Unit Root in Real GNP," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 264-272, March.
    6. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-287, July.
    7. DeJong, David N, et al, 1992. "Integration versus Trend Stationarity in Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 423-433, March.
    8. Wynne, Mark, 1992. "Does aggregate output have a unit root?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 179-182, June.
    9. Rappoport, Peter & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1989. "Segmented Trends and Non-stationary Time Series," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(395), pages 168-177, Supplemen.
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    11. James G. MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 1227, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    12. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
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    More about this item


    Business; Economic fluctuations; Unit root;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)


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