Export-output causality: The Irish case 1953–93
Despite proposed theoretical relationships, recent empirical research has found no conclusive support for a causal relationship between exports and output. Using the methodological approach based on the statistical theory of cointegration and Granger causality tests, the causal relationship between exports and output is examined here using Irish data. The Johansen technique is used and error-correction modeling is incorporated into the Granger causality tests. Results suggest that exports and GDP are cointegrated. Augmented Granger causality tests indicate support for the export-led growth hypothesis since there is evidence of short-run and long-run causality from exports to output. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 1998
Volume (Year): 26 (1998)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.springer.com|
Postal:Suite 650, International Tower, 229 Peachtree Street, N.E., Atlanta, GA 30303
Phone: (404) 965-1555
Fax: (404) 965-1556
Web page: http://www.iaes.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11293/PS2|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Chow, Peter C. Y., 1987. "Causality between export growth and industrial development : Empirial evidence from the NICs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 55-63, June.
- Marin, Dalia, 1992.
"Is the Export-Led.Growth Hypothesis Valid for Industrialized Countries?,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 74(4), pages 678-688, November.
- Marin, Dalia, 1990. "Is the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Industrialized Countries?," CEPR Discussion Papers 362, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Marin, Dalia, 1992. "Is the Export-led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Industrialized Countries?," Munich Reprints in Economics 3112, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Balassa, Bela, 1978. "Exports and economic growth : Further evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 181-189, June.
- Michaely, Michael, 1977. "Exports and growth : An empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 49-53, February.
- Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
- Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Understanding Spurious Regressions in Econometrics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 757, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Cantillon, Sara & Curtis, John & FitzGerald, John, 1994. "Economic Perspectives for the Medium Term," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number BMI84.
- Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
- Feder, Gershon, 1983. "On exports and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 59-73.
- Jones, Jonathan D. & Joulfaian, David, 1991. "Federal govemment expenditures and revenues in the early years of the American republic: Evidence from 1792 to 1860," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 133-155.
- Andrew C. Harvey, 1990. "The Econometric Analysis of Time Series, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 026208189x, July.
- Geweke, John, 1984. "Inference and causality in economic time series models," Handbook of Econometrics,in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 19, pages 1101-1144 Elsevier.
- Tyler, William G., 1981. "Growth and export expansion in developing countries : Some empirical evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 121-130, August.
- Krueger, Anne O, 1980. "Trade Policy as an Input to Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(2), pages 288-292, May.
- Anne O. Krueger, 1980. "Trade Policy as an Input to Development," NBER Working Papers 0466, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James G. MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 1227, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- James G. MacKinnon, 2010. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 1227, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "EGTEST: RATS procedure to compute Engle-Granger test for Cointegration," Statistical Software Components RTS00061, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Søren Johansen & Katarina Juselius, 1990. "Some Structural Hypotheses in a Multivariate Cointegration Analysis of the Purchasing Power Parity and the Uncovered Interest Parity for UK," Discussion Papers 90-05, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Ohanian, Lee E., 1988. "The spurious effects of unit roots on vector autoregressions : A Monte Carlo study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 251-266, November. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)