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On the Causality between Export Growth and GDP Growth: An Empirical Reinvestigation


  • Xu, Zhenhui


Although conventional wisdom suggests that export growth contributes positively to economic growth, empirical studies on the causal links between exports and output have provided little support for the exported growth hypothesis. The paper reexamines the direction of causation by handling properly two important issues in causality tests: This paper reexamines the direction of causation by handling properly two important issues in causality tests: the characteristics of the data, and the choice of optimal lags. The results of this study show that in a sample of 32 economies, the export-led hypothesis is supported by 17 economies and is strongly supported by 9 economies. Copyright 1996 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Xu, Zhenhui, 1996. "On the Causality between Export Growth and GDP Growth: An Empirical Reinvestigation," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(2), pages 172-184, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:4:y:1996:i:2:p:172-84

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Hoekman, B.M. & Leidy, M.P., 1989. "Dumping, Antidumping, And Emergency Protection," Working Papers 246, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    2. George J. Stigler, 1971. "The Theory of Economic Regulation," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 2(1), pages 3-21, Spring.
    3. Wendy L. Hansen & Thomas J. Prusa, 1995. "The Road Most Taken: the Rise of Title VII Protection," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(2), pages 295-313, March.
    4. repec:cup:apsrev:v:84:y:1990:i:01:p:21-46_19 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Silberman, Jonathan I & Durden, Garey C, 1976. "Determining Legislative Preferences on the Minimum Wage: An Economic Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(2), pages 317-329, April.
    6. Weingast, Barry R & Moran, Mark J, 1983. "Bureaucratic Discretion or Congressional Control? Regulatory Policymaking by the Federal Trade Commission," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(5), pages 765-800, October.
    7. Chappell, Henry W, Jr, 1982. "Campaign Contributions and Congressional Voting: A Simultaneous Probit-Tobit Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(1), pages 77-83, February.
    8. Finger, J M & Hall, H Keith & Nelson, Douglas R, 1982. "The Political Economy of Administered Protection," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 452-466, June.
    9. Barry Weingast, 1984. "The congressional-bureaucratic system: a principal agent perspective (with applications to the SEC)," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 147-191, January.
    10. repec:fth:michin:246 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Robert Baldwin & Jeffrey Steagall, 1994. "An analysis of ITC decisions in antidumping, countervailing duty and safeguard cases," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 130(2), pages 290-308, June.
    12. Gary S. Becker, 1983. "A Theory of Competition Among Pressure Groups for Political Influence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 98(3), pages 371-400.
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