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The Relationship Between Exports And Economic Growth In East Asian Countries: A Multivariate Threshold Autoregressive Approach

Author

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  • Chien-Hui Lee

    (Department of International Trade, National Kaohsiung University of Applied Sciences)

  • Bwo-Nung Huang

    (Department of Economics, National Chung-Cheng University)

Abstract

During the process of economic development, different economic policies are adopted in accordance with particular circumstances. Therefore, conventional methods of time-series analysis may give misleading results if the problems associated with regime switches are not considered. The relationship between export growth and output growth is explored using a multivariate threshold model with regimes defined by the export-import ratio. In the cases of five countries that are recognized as being outward-oriented, we find that, except for Hong Kong, the relationship whereby exports lead output prevails in at least one regime for each of four of the countries being studied. The regime-based threshold autoregressive model thus appears to possess certain advantages over the more conventional linear autoregressive model.

Suggested Citation

  • Chien-Hui Lee & Bwo-Nung Huang, 2002. "The Relationship Between Exports And Economic Growth In East Asian Countries: A Multivariate Threshold Autoregressive Approach," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 45-68, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:jed:journl:v:27:y:2002:i:2:p:45-68
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Multivariate Threshold Autoregressive Model; Export Growth; Output Growth; Export-import Ratio;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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