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Exports and Economic Growth: The Arab Experience

  • Mohammed Ibrahim El-Sakka

    (Department of Economics, Kuwait University.)

  • Naief Hamad Al-Mutairi

    (Department of Economics, Kuwait University.)

This paper aims at analysing the relationship between exports and economic growth in the Arab countries using annual data for the period 1970–1999. Section two of this study presents a theoretical background of the relationship between exports and economic growth. Literature review is found in Section 3. In Section 4, the methodological issues of studying this relationship are discussed. Results of stationarity tests using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) as well as Bivariate Johansen-Juseluis tests for cointegration are presented in Section 5. Stationarity tests suggest that time series are non-stationary in their levels and seem to be stationary in their first differences. Testing for long-run cointegration relationship using Johansen-Juseluis approach, it is found that in general there is no cointegration relationship between exports and GDP. For this reason, we abandoned the error correction model and tested for causality using different versions of Granger’s causality test. We found mixed results about the causal relationship between exports and GDP in Arab countries.

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Article provided by Pakistan Institute of Development Economics in its journal The Pakistan Development Review.

Volume (Year): 39 (2000)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 153-169

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Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:39:y:2000:i:2:p:153-169
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  1. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
  2. Irene Henriques & Perry Sadorsky, 1996. "Export-Led Growth or Growth-Driven Exports? The Canadian Case," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(3), pages 540-55, August.
  3. Balassa, Bela, 1978. "Exports and economic growth : Further evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 181-189, June.
  4. Tyler, William G., 1981. "Growth and export expansion in developing countries : Some empirical evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 121-130, August.
  5. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  6. Boltho, Andrea, 1996. "Was Japanese Growth Export-Led?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(3), pages 415-32, July.
  7. Pierce, David A. & Haugh, Larry D., 1977. "Causality in temporal systems : Characterization and a survey," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 265-293, May.
  8. Ram, Rati, 1985. "Exports and Economic Growth: Some Additional Evidence," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(2), pages 415-25, January.
  9. Satya Paul & Kabir Chowdhury, 1995. "Export-led growth hypothesis: some empirical testing," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(6), pages 177-179.
  10. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  11. Jaleel Ahmad & Somchai Harnhirun, 1996. "Cointegration and Causality between Exports and Economic Growth: Evidence from the ASEAN Countries," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(s1), pages 413-16, April.
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