Working Paper 76 - Are Exports the Engine of Economic Growth? An Application of Cointegration and Causality Analysis for Egypt, 1977 - 2003
The paper examines the export-led growth (ELG) paradigm for Egypt, using historical data from 1977 to 2003. During this period, Egypt changed its economic philosophy from central planning and government intervention to one based on a free market economy. The paper employs a variety of analytical tools, including cointegration analysis, Granger causality tests, and unit root tests, coupled with vector auto regression (VAR) and impulse response function (IRF) analyses. The paper sets three hypotheses for testing the ELG paradigm for Egypt, (i) whether GDP, exports and imports are cointegrated, (ii) whether exports Granger cause growth, (iii) whether exports Granger cause investment. The paper fails to reject the first two hypotheses, while it fails to accept that exports Granger cause investment. In addition to the analysis of the 1977-2003 period, the paper looks briefly also at the impact of the economic reform undertaken in 1991, and weather the ELG hypothesis still holds during the 1991-2003 sub-period.
|Date of creation:||13 Jul 2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (+216) 71 10 39 00
Fax: (225) 21.77.53
Web page: http://www.afdb.org/en/knowledge/publications/Email:
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Rivera-Batiz, Luis A & Romer, Paul M, 1991.
"Economic Integration and Endogenous Growth,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 531-55, May.
- Jusús Crespo Cuaresma & Julia Wörz, 2003.
"On export composition and growth,"
Vienna Economics Papers
0309, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
- Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Julia Wörz, 2005. "On Export Composition and Growth," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 141(1), pages 33-49, April.
- Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Mohtadi, Hamid & Shabsigh, Ghiath, 1991. "Exports, growth and causality in LDCs : A re-examination," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 405-415, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:adb:adbwps:211. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Adeleke Oluwole Salami)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.