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Revisiting The Export-Output Nexus For Western Africa Countries: A Markov Switching Causality Approach

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  • AKA, Bédia F.

Abstract

This paper examines the empirical relationships between exports growth and economic performance for western Africa countries using a non-linear Markov Switching VAR model in contrast with previous linear time series studies. We could not find causality from exports to GDP and vice versa in Benin, while causality is found only from GDP to exports in Senegal and Togo supporting the growth-driven exports (GDE) point of view, and from exports to GDP in Niger supporting the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis. We find bi-directional regime-dependent causality between exports and GDP in Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire and Mali where both hypotheses hold implying a virtuous circle of growth and exports.

Suggested Citation

  • AKA, Bédia F., 2008. "Revisiting The Export-Output Nexus For Western Africa Countries: A Markov Switching Causality Approach," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 8(1), pages 155-166.
    • Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:8:y:2008:i:1_13
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    Cited by:

    1. AKA, Bedia François, 2016. "Quantitative Impacts Of Basic Income Grant On Income Distribution In Cote D’Ivoire: Time To Change Our Societies," Revista Galega de Economía, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business., vol. 25(1), pages 159-170.
    2. Neveen M. TORAYEH, 2011. "Manufactured Exports And Economic Growth In Egypt: Cointegration And Causality Analysis," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 11(1).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Multivariate Markov Switching Model; Exports; Output Growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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