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Exports And Economic Growth A Re-Examination Of The Causality Relation In Six Countries, 1981-2005

  • NUSHIWAT, Munther

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    The paper argues that, in most cases, causality runs from economic growth to export growth. To support this argument, we start by examining the evidence on causality in the empirical studies done on this subject. Then we empirically test the direction of causation between exports and economic growth using Granger’s causality test on time-series data of six countries (Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Mexico and Thailand). The test reveals that; out of the six cases, the direction of causality can be inferred in two cases; one from growth to exports, the other from exports to growth. Finally we consider the early experiences of the developed countries, and the role of the internal supply factors that determine the supply of output including that of exports.

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    Article provided by Euro-American Association of Economic Development in its journal Applied Econometrics and International Development.

    Volume (Year): 8 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 5-12

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    Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:8:y:2008:i:2_1
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    1. Ramesh Chandra, 2003. "Reinvestigating export-led growth in India using a multivariate cointegration framework," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 37(1), pages 73-86, September.
    2. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Mohtadi, Hamid & Shabsigh, Ghiath, 1991. "Exports, growth and causality in LDCs : A re-examination," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 405-415, October.
    3. Ali F. Darrat, 1986. "Trade and Development: The Asian Experience," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 6(2), pages 695-699, Fall.
    4. K. A. Al Mamun & H. K. Nath, 2005. "Export-led growth in Bangladesh: a time series analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(6), pages 361-364.
    5. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
    6. Feder, Gershon, 1983. "On exports and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 59-73.
    7. Guisan, M.C., 2006. "Industry, Foreign Trade and Development: Econometric Models of Europe and North America, 1965-2003," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 3(1), pages 5-30.
    8. Kavoussi, Rostam M., 1984. "Export expansion and economic growth : Further empirical evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 241-250.
    9. Balassa, Bela, 1978. "Exports and economic growth : Further evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 181-189, June.
    10. Jung, Woo S. & Marshall, Peyton J., 1985. "Exports, growth and causality in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-12.
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