Vector autoregression modelling and forecasting growth of South Korea
In this paper, we have estimated vector autoregression (VAR), Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) and vector error-correction models (VECMs) using annual time-series data of South Korea for 1950-94. We find evidence supporting the view that growth of real per-capita income has been aided by income, investment and export growth, as well as government spending and exchange rate policies. The VECMs provide better forecasts of growth than do the VAR and BVAR models for both short-term and long-term predictions.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 25 (1998)
Issue (Month): 5 (June)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/CJAS20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/CJAS20|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Romer, Paul M, 1986.
"Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
- Paul M Romer, 1999. "Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2232, David K. Levine.
- Hendry, David F. & Pagan, Adrian R. & Sargan, J.Denis, 1984. "Dynamic specification," Handbook of Econometrics,in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 1023-1100 Elsevier.
- Pasaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1995. "New Directions in Applied Macroeconomic Modelling," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9525, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Grossman, Gene M & Helpman, Elhanan, 1990. "Trade, Innovation, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 86-91, May.
- Grossman, G.M. & Helpman, E., 1989. "Trade; Innovation; And Growth," Papers 154, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
- Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1983. "Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions," NBER Working Papers 1202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distribution," Staff Report 93, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Are Nonconvexities Important for Understanding Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 97-103, May.
- Paul Romer, 1990. "Are Nonconvexities Important For Understanding Growth?," NBER Working Papers 3271, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Chishti, Salim U. & Hasan, M. Aynul & Mahmud, Syed F., 1992. "Macroeconometric modelling and Pakistan's economy : A vector autoregression approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 353-370, April.
- Dani Rodrik, 1994. "Getting Interventions Right: How South Korea and Taiwan Grew Rich," NBER Working Papers 4964, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Litterman, Robert, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions -- Five years of experience : Robert B. Litterman, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 4 (1986) 25-38," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 497-498.
- Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 1993. "Losers and Winners in Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 4341, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Cooley, Thomas F. & Leroy, Stephen F., 1985. "Atheoretical macroeconometrics: A critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-308, November.
- Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)