Vector autoregression modelling and forecasting growth of South Korea
In this paper, we have estimated vector autoregression (VAR), Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) and vector error-correction models (VECMs) using annual time-series data of South Korea for 1950-94. We find evidence supporting the view that growth of real per-capita income has been aided by income, investment and export growth, as well as government spending and exchange rate policies. The VECMs provide better forecasts of growth than do the VAR and BVAR models for both short-term and long-term predictions.
Volume (Year): 25 (1998)
Issue (Month): 5 (June)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/CJAS20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/CJAS20|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 1993. "Losers and Winners in Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 4341, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dani Rodrik, 1994. "Getting Interventions Right: How South Korea and Taiwan Grew Rich," NBER Working Papers 4964, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Grossman, G.M. & Helpman, E., 1989.
"Trade; Innovation; And Growth,"
154, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
- Hendry, David F. & Pagan, Adrian R. & Sargan, J.Denis, 1984. "Dynamic specification," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 1023-1100 Elsevier.
- Cooley, Thomas F. & Leroy, Stephen F., 1985. "Atheoretical macroeconometrics: A critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-308, November.
- Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1986.
"Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distribution,"
93, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1983. "Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions," NBER Working Papers 1202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pasaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1995. "New Directions in Applied Macroeconomic Modelling," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9525, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
- Chishti, Salim U. & Hasan, M. Aynul & Mahmud, Syed F., 1992. "Macroeconometric modelling and Pakistan's economy : A vector autoregression approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 353-370, April.
- Paul M Romer, 1999.
"Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
2232, David K. Levine.
- Paul Romer, 1990.
"Are Nonconvexities Important For Understanding Growth?,"
NBER Working Papers
3271, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Are Nonconvexities Important for Understanding Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 97-103, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:25:y:1998:i:5:p:579-592. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.