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Testing a Flow Model of Capital Flight in Five European Countries


  • Gibson, Heather D
  • Tsakalotos, Euclid


This paper examines the problem of capital flight in Europe. The authors calculate the volume of capital flight experienced by five European countries--France, Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain--and discuss its importance. A model of the short-run determinants of capital flight is developed, which places particular emphasis on factors reflecting uncertainty, and is then tested.for the five countries. Political risk and expected depreciation were significant for all countries and, in addition, rates of return were significant in the case of Portugal and Spain. The authors conclude by discussing the implications of these results for the process of European integration. Copyright 1993 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester

Suggested Citation

  • Gibson, Heather D & Tsakalotos, Euclid, 1993. "Testing a Flow Model of Capital Flight in Five European Countries," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 61(2), pages 144-166, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:manch2:v:61:y:1993:i:2:p:144-66

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Miller, Stephen M, 1991. "Monetary Dynamics: An Application of Cointegration and Error-Correction Modeling," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 139-154, May.
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    11. Jeroen J. M. Kremers & Timothy D. Lane, 1990. "Economic and Monetary Integration and the Aggregate Demand for Money in the EMS," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(4), pages 777-805, December.
    12. P. Bekx & G. Tullio, 1989. "A note on the European Monetary System, and the determination of the DM-dollar exchange rate," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 123, pages 329-343.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fedderke, J. W. & Liu, W., 2002. "Modelling the determinants of capital flows and capital flight: with an application to South African data from 1960 to 1995," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 419-444, May.
    2. Valerie Cerra & Meenakshi Rishi & Sweta Saxena, 2008. "Robbing the Riches: Capital Flight, Institutions and Debt," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(8), pages 1190-1213.
    3. Lensink, Robert & Hermes, Niels & Murinde, Victor, 2000. "Capital flight and political risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 73-92, February.
    4. Yalta, A. Yasemin & Yalta, A. Talha, 2012. "Does financial liberalization decrease capital flight? A panel causality analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 92-100.

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