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Political risk and export promotion: Evidence from Germany

  • Nestmann, Thorsten
  • Moser, Christoph
  • Wedow, Michael

Political risk represents an important hidden transaction cost that reduces international trade. This paper investigates the claim that German public export credit guarantees (Hermes guarantees) mitigate this friction to trade flows and hence promote exports. We employ an empirical trade gravity model, where we explicitly control for political risk in the importing country in order to evaluate the effect of export guarantees. The idea behind export promotion through public export credit agencies (ECAs) is that the private market is unable to provide adequate insurance for all risks associated with exports. As a consequence, firms' export activities are limited in the absence of insurance provision. Using a novel data set on guarantees we estimate the effect of guarantees in a static and dynamic panel model. We find a statistically and economically significant positive effect of public export guarantees on exports which indicates that export promotion is indeed effective. Furthermore, political risk turns out to be a robust determinant of exports and hence should be taken into account in any empirical model of trade.

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Paper provided by Deutsche Bank Research in its series Research Notes with number 23.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:dbrrns:23
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  1. Alsem, K.J., 2003. "Insurability of export credit risks," Research Report 03F07, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
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  7. Rienstra-Munnicha, Paul & Turvey, Calum G., 2002. "The Relationship Between Exports, Credit Risk And Credit Guarantees," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19583, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
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  10. Dewit, Gerda, 2001. "Intervention in risky export markets: insurance, strategic action or aid?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 575-592, September.
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  13. Filip Abraham & Gerda Dewit, 2000. "Export Promotion Via Official Export Insurance," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 5-26, January.
  14. Funatsu, Hideki, 1986. "Export Credit Insurance and Moral Hazard," 商学討究 (Shogaku Tokyu), Otaru University of Commerce, vol. 36(3), pages 217-235.
  15. Rienstra-Munnicha, Paul & Turvey, Calum G., 2002. "The Relationship Between Exports, Credit Risk And Credit Guarantees," Working Papers 34115, University of Guelph, Department of Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics.
  16. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen, 2004. "Why Some Firms Export," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(2), pages 561-569, May.
  17. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-81, August.
  18. Salvador Gil & Rafael Llorca & José A. Martínez Serrano, 2008. "Measuring the impact of regional export promotion: The Spanish case," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 87(1), pages 139-146, 03.
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