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How does the US credit crisis affect the Asia-Pacific economies?--Analysis based on a general equilibrium model


  • Zhang, Wenlang
  • Zhang, Zhiwei
  • Han, Gaofeng


The current financial crisis differs from most post-war recessions in that the balance sheets of both households and banks have been severely damaged, which could lead to structural changes in the behavior of households. Therefore, it may exert some far-reaching effects on regional economies in the short run as well as in the medium term. This paper studies these effects using a multi-country dynamic structural model. In the short run, the US credit crisis weighs heavily upon the Asia-Pacific economies through financial linkages in addition to the traditional trade channel due to the deepening global financial integration. The relative importance of various financial channels differs notably across economies. While stock market contagion is more important for advanced economies, flight to quality across borders plays a key role in less developed economies. From a medium-term perspective, changes in the US household behavior caused by the credit crisis can help correct global imbalances, but the effectiveness hinges largely upon how long US households can maintain a reasonably higher savings rate. In addition, although the declining American public savings rate may not exert material impacts on the global imbalances, it can darken regional growth prospects due to a potentially higher world real interest rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Wenlang & Zhang, Zhiwei & Han, Gaofeng, 2010. "How does the US credit crisis affect the Asia-Pacific economies?--Analysis based on a general equilibrium model," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 280-292, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:21:y:2010:i:3:p:280-292

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    8. N'Diaye, Papa & Zhang, Ping & Zhang, Wenlang, 2010. "Structural reform, intra-regional trade, and medium-term growth prospects of East Asia and the Pacific--Perspectives from a new multi-region model," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 20-36, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dewandaru, Ginanjar & Masih, Rumi & Masih, A. Mansur M., 2015. "Why is no financial crisis a dress rehearsal for the next? Exploring contagious heterogeneities across major Asian stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 419(C), pages 241-259.
    2. Rizvi, Syed Aun R. & Arshad, Shaista & Alam, Nafis, 2015. "Crises and contagion in Asia Pacific — Islamic v/s conventional markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 315-326.
    3. Naifar, Nader, 2012. "Modeling the dependence structure between default risk premium, equity return volatility and the jump risk: Evidence from a financial crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 119-131.
    4. Riccardo Cristadoro & Daniela Marconi, 2012. "Household savings in China," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 275-299, November.
    5. Dewandaru, Ginanjar & Masih, Rumi & Masih, A. Mansur M., 2016. "Contagion and interdependence across Asia-Pacific equity markets: An analysis based on multi-horizon discrete and continuous wavelet transformations," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 363-377.
    6. repec:eee:ecmode:v:65:y:2017:i:c:p:30-40 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Zhang, Zhiwei & Zhang, Wenlang, 2011. "The road to recovery: Fiscal stimulus, financial sector rehabilitation, and potential risks ahead," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 311-321, August.
    8. Masahiro Kawai & Fan Zhai, 2012. "Asia’s Post-global Financial Crisis Adjustment: A Model-based Dynamic Analysis," Chapters,in: Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia, chapter 8 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Naifar, Nader, 2011. "What explains default risk premium during the financial crisis? Evidence from Japan," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(5), pages 412-430, September.
    10. Mayer, Jörg, 2012. "Global rebalancing: Effects on trade and employment," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 627-642.


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