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Global Impact of a Shift in Foreign Reserves to Euros

  • Fritz Breuss
  • Werner Roeger
  • Jan in 't Veld

This paper considers the potential impact of a shift in official foreign reserves from dollars to euros using a global DSGE model. This paper uses QUEST III, a multi-region global DSGE model, to study the macroeconomic effects of a gradual equalization of official foreign reserves between dollars and euros. We simulate a scenario of a shift in the composition of foreign reserves holdings from the present ratio of 65 percent dollars and 25 percent euros to equal 45 percent shares over a 10 years period. We assume imperfect substitutability between financial assets to allow this shift to have real effects. Our simulations point towards small real effects due to the reduction in real interest rates resulting from this shift in official holdings.

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File URL: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/publication13350_en.pdf
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Paper provided by Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission in its series European Economy - Economic Papers with number 345.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0345
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  1. Menzie D. Chinn & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2008. "The Euro May Over the Next 15 Years Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Currency," NBER Working Papers 13909, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Thierry Bracke & Matthieu Bussière & Michael Fidora & Roland Straub, 2008. "A framework for assessing global imbalances," Occasional Paper Series 78, European Central Bank.
  3. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2007. "Europe and global imbalances," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 22, pages 519-573, 07.
  4. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Rey, Hélène, 2005. "International Financial Adjustment," CEPR Discussion Papers 4923, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Graham Bird & Ramkishen Rajan, 2003. "Too Much of a Good Thing? The Adequacy of International Reserves in the Aftermath of Crises," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(6), pages 873-891, 06.
  6. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2005. "Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(1), pages 67-146.
  7. Roland Beck & Michael Fidora, 2008. "The impact of sovereign wealth funds on global financial markets," Occasional Paper Series 91, European Central Bank.
  8. Henderson, Dale W. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1982. "Negative net foreign asset positions and stability in a world portfolio balance model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1-2), pages 85-104, August.
  9. Masson, Paul R., 2007. "The growing role of the euro in emerging market finance," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4381, The World Bank.
  10. Elias Papaioannou & Richard Portes, 2008. "The international role of the euro: a status report," European Economy - Economic Papers 317, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
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