How Does the US Credit Crisis Affect the Asia-Pacific Economies? --- Analysis based on a General Equilibrium Model
The current financial crisis differs from most post-war recessions in that the balance sheets of both households and banks have been severely damaged, which could lead to structural changes in the behaviour of households. Therefore, it may exert some far-reaching effects on regional economies in the short run as well as in the medium term. This paper studies these effects using a multi-country dynamic structural model. In the short run, the US credit crisis weighs heavily upon the Asia-Pacific economies through financial linkages in addition to the traditional trade channel due to the deepening global financial integration. The relative importance of various financial channels differs notably across economies. While stock market contagion is more important for advanced economies, flight to quality across borders plays a key role in less developed economies. From a medium-term perspective, changes in the US household behavior caused by the credit crisis can help correct global imbalances, but the effectiveness hinges largely upon how long US households can maintain a reasonably higher savings rate. In addition, although the declining American public savings rate may not exert material impacts on the global imbalances, it can darken regional growth prospects due to a potentially higher world real interest rate.
|Date of creation:||Jul 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 55th Floor, Two International Finance Centre, 8 Finance Street, Central|
Web page: http://www.info.gov.hk/hkma/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1994.
"The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality,"
NBER Working Papers
4789, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February.
- Simon Gilchrist & Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1994. "The financial accelerator and the flight to quality," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 94-18, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1994. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," Working Papers 94-24, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Devereux, Michael B. & Genberg, Hans, 2007.
"Currency appreciation and current account adjustment,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 570-586, June.
- Michael B. Devereux & Hans Genberg, 2006. "Currency Appreciation and Current Account Adjustment," Working Papers 172006, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton & Dirk Muir & Paolo Pesenti, 2005.
"Smooth Landing or Crash? Model-Based Scenarios of Global Current Account Rebalancing,"
NBER Working Papers
11583, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton & Dirk Muir & Paolo A. Pesenti, 2007. "Smooth Landing or Crash? Model-Based Scenarios of Global Current Account Rebalancing," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 377-456 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton & Dirk Muir & Paolo Pesenti, 2005. "Smooth landing or crash? model based scenarios of global current account rebalancing," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2005.
"Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(1), pages 67-146.
- Kenneth Rogoff & William Brainard & George Perry, . "Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments," Working Paper 33687, Harvard University OpenScholar.
- Thierry Bracke & Matthieu Bussière & Michael Fidora & Roland Straub, 2008. "A framework for assessing global imbalances," Occasional Paper Series 78, European Central Bank.
- Mark R. Stone & E. P. Davis, 2004.
"Corporate Financial Structure and Financial Stability,"
IMF Working Papers
04/124, International Monetary Fund.
- Davis, E. Philip & Stone, Mark R., 2004. "Corporate financial structure and financial stability," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 65-91, September.
- Douglas Laxton & Michael Kumhof, 2007.
"A Party without a Hangover? On the Effects of U.S. Government Deficits,"
2007 Meeting Papers
676, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Douglas Laxton & Michael Kumhof, 2007. "A Party without a Hangover? On the Effects of U.S. Government Deficits," IMF Working Papers 07/202, International Monetary Fund.
- Guonan Ma & RobertN McCauley, 2008. "Efficacy Of China'S Capital Controls: Evidence From Price And Flow Data," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 104-123, 02.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hkg:wpaper:0912. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Simon Chan)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.