Deteriorating Public Finances and Rising Government Debt: Implications for Monetary Policy
The sharp rise in government debt in many major economies following the introduction of large fiscal stimulus measures during the global financial crisis of 2008-09 has triggered concerns over its impact on long-term interest rates and the potential negative consequences for future growth and inflation. This paper uses an error-correction model to assess the effect of growing government debt on long-term real interest rates by drawing on empirical evidence from the US. The results show that in the long run, a one-percentage-point increase in the federal debt-to-GDP ratio raises the equilibrium 10-year real US Treasury yield by about six basis points. We also discuss the economic consequences of a rise in the world long-term interest rates, and draw implications for longer-term growth and the conduct of monetary policy in the Asian economies.
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- Anne-Marie Brook, 2003. "Recent and Prospective Trends in Real Long-Term Interest Rates: Fiscal Policy and other Drivers," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 367, OECD Publishing.
- Joseph E. Gagnon, 1996. "Net foreign assets and equilibrium exchange rates: panel evidence," International Finance Discussion Papers 574, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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