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The Effect of Government Debt on Interest Rates: Working Paper 2019-01

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  • Edward Gamber
  • John Seliski

Abstract

Under current law, the level of federal debt relative to gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to rise significantly over the next decade. The relationship between debt and interest rates plays a key role in CBO's economic and budget projections (especially long-term projections) and for dynamic analyses of fiscal policy, where the sensitivity of interest rates with respect to changes in the level of debt is vitally important. In this analysis, we use a reduced-form regression to estimate the relationship between projected federal debt and expected long-term

Suggested Citation

  • Edward Gamber & John Seliski, 2019. "The Effect of Government Debt on Interest Rates: Working Paper 2019-01," Working Papers 55018, Congressional Budget Office.
  • Handle: RePEc:cbo:wpaper:55018
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    File URL: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2019-03/55018-Debt%20Rates%20WP.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Enock Mwakalila, 2020. "Crowding Out of Private Sector in Tanzania: Government Expenditure, Domestic Borrowing, and Lending Rates," Emerging Economy Studies, International Management Institute, vol. 6(1), pages 123-135, May.
    2. Moore, Rachel & Pecoraro, Brandon, 2019. "Modeling the Internal Revenue Code in a heterogeneous-agent framework: An application to TCJA," MPRA Paper 93110, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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