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The impact of financial frictions on a small open economy: when current account borrowing hits a limit

  • Diego Valderrama

The evidence of the last 20 years of recurring output busts and rapid reversals of the current account in emerging markets indicates that domestic agents may not be able to borrow in international capital markets to fully insure themselves against internal and external shocks. This paper models this phenomenon as a form of excess volatility by introducing a financial friction into a stochastic model of a small open economy. The financial friction limits the current account deficit to a fixed fraction of gross domestic product. The paper shows that conditional volatility and asymmetry are significant statistical characteristics of the GDP and current account that reflect the excess volatility and the current account reversals. The economic model can explain the conditional volatility and asymmetry of Mexican GDP and the current account.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Working Paper Series with number 2002-15.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2002-15
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  1. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 35-54, November.
  2. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
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  4. Brock, William A., 2000. "Whither nonlinear?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 663-678, June.
  5. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 797-818, September.
  6. Jean-Marie Dufour & Abdeljelil Farhat & Lucien Gardiol & Lynda Khalaf, 1998. "Simulation-based finite sample normality tests in linear regressions," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 1(Conferenc), pages C154-C173.
  7. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1993. "Low frequency filtering and real business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 207-231.
  8. Diego Valderrama, 2003. "Statistical Nonlinearities in the Business Cycle," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 219, Society for Computational Economics.
  9. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-17, June.
  10. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Smith, R. Todd, 2002. "Temporary controls on capital inflows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 327-351, August.
  11. Gallant, A Ronald & Nychka, Douglas W, 1987. "Semi-nonparametric Maximum Likelihood Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 363-90, March.
  12. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 1-90.
  13. Tauchen, George & Hussey, Robert, 1991. "Quadrature-Based Methods for Obtaining Approximate Solutions to Nonlinear Asset Pricing Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 371-96, March.
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