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Heterogeneous Beliefs and Momentum Profits

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  • Verardo, Michela

Abstract

Recent theoretical models derive return continuation in a setting where investors have heterogeneous beliefs or receive heterogeneous information. This paper tests the link between heterogeneity of beliefs and return continuation in the cross-section of U.S. stock returns. Heterogeneity of beliefs about a firm’s fundamentals is measured by the dispersion in analyst forecasts of earnings. The results show that momentum profits are significantly larger for portfolios characterized by higher heterogeneity of beliefs. Predictive cross-sectional regressions show that heterogeneity of beliefs has a positive effect on return continuation after controlling for a stock’s visibility, the speed of information diffusion, uncertainty about fundamentals, information precision, and volatility. The results in this paper are robust to the potential presence of short-sale constraints and are not explained by arbitrage risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Verardo, Michela, 2009. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and Momentum Profits," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(04), pages 795-822, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:44:y:2009:i:04:p:795-822_99
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    Cited by:

    1. Giovanni Cespa & Xavier Vives, 2015. "The Beauty Contest and Short-Term Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(5), pages 2099-2154, October.
    2. Menkhoff, Lukas & Sarno, Lucio & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2012. "Currency momentum strategies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 660-684.
    3. Clare, Andrew & Seaton, James & Smith, Peter N. & Thomas, Stephen, 2014. "Trend following, risk parity and momentum in commodity futures," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 1-12.
    4. Lam, F.Y. Eric C. & Wei, K.C. John, 2011. "Limits-to-arbitrage, investment frictions, and the asset growth anomaly," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 127-149, October.
    5. Boco, Hervé & Germain, Laurent & Rousseau, Fabrice, 2016. "Heterogeneous noisy beliefs and dynamic competition in financial markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 347-363.
    6. Peng, Emma Y. & Yan, An & Yan, Meng, 2016. "Accounting accruals, heterogeneous investor beliefs, and stock returns," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 88-103.
    7. Jungshik Hur & Vivek Singh, 2016. "Reexamining momentum profits: Underreaction or overreaction to firm-specific information?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 261-289, February.
    8. Celiker, Umut & Kayacetin, Nuri Volkan & Kumar, Raman & Sonaer, Gokhan, 2016. "Cash flow news, discount rate news, and momentum," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 240-254.
    9. Badreddine, Sina & Galariotis, Emilios C. & Holmes, Phil, 2012. "The relevance of information and trading costs in explaining momentum profits: Evidence from optioned and non-optioned stocks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 589-608.
    10. Chen, Hong-Yi & Chen, Sheng-Syan & Hsin, Chin-Wen & Lee, Cheng-Few, 2014. "Does revenue momentum drive or ride earnings or price momentum?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 166-185.
    11. Conghui Hu & Shasha Liu, 2013. "The Implications of Low R 2 : Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(1), pages 17-32, January.
    12. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Thuraisamy, Kannan & Westerlund, Joakim, 2016. "Price discovery and asset pricing," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 40(PA), pages 224-235.
    13. Chen, Lin & Qin, Lu & Zhu, Hongquan, 2015. "Opinion divergence, unexpected trading volume and stock returns: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 119-127.
    14. Cespa, Giovanni & Vives, Xavier, 2011. "Expectations, Liquidity, and Short-term Trading," CEPR Discussion Papers 8303, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Marco Ottaviani & Peter Norman Sørensen, 2015. "Price Reaction to Information with Heterogeneous Beliefs and Wealth Effects: Underreaction, Momentum, and Reversal," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(1), pages 1-34, January.
    16. Mao, Mike Qinghao & Wei, K.C. John, 2014. "Price and earnings momentum: An explanation using return decomposition," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 332-351.
    17. Giulio Bottazzi & Pietro Dindo & Daniele Giachini, 2018. "Momentum and Reversal in Financial Markets with Persistent Heterogeneity," LEM Papers Series 2018/04, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    18. Huang, Huichou & MacDonald, Ronald & Zhao, Yang, 2012. "Global Currency Misalignments, Crash Sensitivity, and Downside Insurance Costs," MPRA Paper 53745, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Nov 2013.
    19. Andrei, Daniel & Cujean, Julien, 2017. "Information percolation, momentum and reversal," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(3), pages 617-645.
    20. Bhootra, Ajay & Hur, Jungshik, 2012. "On the relationship between concentration of prospect theory/mental accounting investors, cointegration, and momentum," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1266-1275.
    21. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach, 2017. "Momentum strategies for Islamic stocks," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 96-112.
    22. Conghui Hu & Shasha Liu, 2013. "The Implications of Low R 2 : Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(1), pages 17-32, January.

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