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Currency Carry Trades, Position-Unwinding Risk, and Sovereign Credit Premia

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  • Huang, Huichou
  • MacDonald, Ronald

Abstract

This is the first study that employs option pricing model to measure the position-unwinding risk of currency carry trade portfolios, which covers moment information as the proxy for crash risk. We show that high interest-rate currencies are exposed to higher position-unwinding risk than low interest-rate currencies. I also investigate the sovereign CDS spreads as the proxy for countries' credit conditions and find that high interest rate currencies load up positively on sovereign default risk while low interest rate currencies provide a hedge against it. Sovereign credit premia as the dominant economic fundamental risk, together with position-unwinding likelihood indicator as the market risk (non-neutrality) sentiment, captures over 90% cross-sectional variations of carry trade excess returns. I identify sovereign credit risk as the impulsive country-specific risk that drives market volatility, and also the global contagion channels. Then I propose an alternative carry trade strategy that is immunized from crash risk, and a composite story of sovereign credit premia, global liquidity imbalances and liquidity reversal/spiral for explaining the forward premium puzzle.

Suggested Citation

  • Huang, Huichou & MacDonald, Ronald, 2012. "Currency Carry Trades, Position-Unwinding Risk, and Sovereign Credit Premia," MPRA Paper 47987, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Jan 2013.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:47987
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hanno Lustig & Nikolai Roussanov & Adrien Verdelhan, 2011. "Common Risk Factors in Currency Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(11), pages 3731-3777.
    2. Lukas Menkhoff & Lucio Sarno & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2012. "Carry Trades and Global Foreign Exchange Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(2), pages 681-718, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Ivelina Pavlova & Maria E. de Boyrie, 2015. "Carry Trades and Sovereign CDS Spreads: Evidence from Asia‐Pacific Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(11), pages 1067-1087, November.
    2. Augustin, Patrick & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Wang, Sarah Qian, 2014. "Credit Default Swaps: A Survey," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 9(1-2), pages 1-196, December.
    3. Vitaly Orlov, 2018. "Solvency Risk Premia and the Carry Trades," Working Papers on Finance 1802, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    4. Huang, Huichou & MacDonald, Ronald & Zhao, Yang, 2012. "Global Currency Misalignments, Crash Sensitivity, and Downside Insurance Costs," MPRA Paper 53745, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Nov 2013.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Carry Trades; Position-unwinding Risk; Sovereign CDS Spreads; Currency Options; Forward Premium Puzzle.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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