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On the profitability of influential carry-trade strategies: Data-snooping bias and post-publication performance

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  • Hsu, Po-Hsuan
  • Taylor, Mark P.
  • Wang, Zigan
  • Li, Yan

Abstract

This study examines whether 13 influential carry-trade strategies retain profitability after being published in the academic literature. We first implement several bootstrap methods to correct for the presence of data snooping and find that the pre-publication profitability of these strategies is not due to selection bias, demonstrating their original capacity to exploit market inefficiencies. On the other hand, their profitability has declined since their publication years. Our empirical evidence suggests that, although academic researchers may sometimes uncover market anomalies, their publication reduces inefficiencies in currency markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Hsu, Po-Hsuan & Taylor, Mark P. & Wang, Zigan & Li, Yan, 2025. "On the profitability of influential carry-trade strategies: Data-snooping bias and post-publication performance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:83:y:2025:i:c:s0927539825000623
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101640
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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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